STRATEGY

Is this the best Bucks lineup for playoffs?

Evaluating whether the five-man unit of Damian Lillard, Taurean Prince, Kyle Kuzma, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Brook Lopez constitutes a playoff-winning defensive formula requires looking at their collective defensive strengths, weaknesses, and how they might perform in high-stakes playoff scenarios. As of March 8, 2025, this lineup has been used by the Milwaukee Bucks, and we can assess its potential based on available insights into their individual and collective play, particularly post-trade deadline adjustments in the 2024-25 NBA season.
This lineup features a mix of offensive firepower and defensive versatility, with Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Brook Lopez, a proven rim protector. Lopez, while slower-footed than in his prime, remains an elite shot-blocker and a solid drop-coverage center, effective at deterring drives when not exploited by quicker opponents.


Kyle Kuzma adds defensive flexibility to this unit. Since joining the Bucks, he’s shown an ability to guard multiple positions, including taking on tough assignments like Kawhi Leonard, where he’s held his own by limiting shooting efficiency and making hustle plays. His length and energy enhance the lineup’s switchability, addressing some of Milwaukee’s previous perimeter defensive struggles. Taurean Prince, often slotted as a small forward playing the two-guard role in this lineup, brings decent point-of-attack defense. He’s not an elite on-ball defender but can hold his own against wings and contribute to team schemes with effort and physicality.


Giannis is flawed in many respects and like Damian Lillard a potential weak link defensively. Historically, Lillard has not been a strong defender—his defensive rating this season remains among the lowest of Milwaukee’s main rotation players. While he’s shown improved effort under Doc Rivers, he can still be targeted by quicker guards or in pick-and-roll situations, forcing the team into rotations that rely heavily on Giannis and Lopez to clean up. Playoff teams often exploit such vulnerabilities, and Lillard’s defensive consistency will be under scrutiny.


Data from the 2024-25 season suggests this lineup has had success in limited minutes. Reports indicate a 4-1 record when starting together, with strong net ratings reflecting their ability to outscore opponents. Defensively, they’ve shown promise, particularly in games like the February 27, 2025, win over the Denver Nuggets (121-112), where team defense—led by Giannis and supported by Kuzma’s versatility—limited Nikola Jokić’s impact despite his triple-double. The lineup’s size (with Prince at 6’6”, Kuzma at 6’9”, Giannis at 6’11”, and Lopez at 7’1”) and switchability allow them to match up with bigger playoff teams while still having enough agility to handle some guard-heavy offenses.


However, there are caveats. The sample size of this lineup’s minutes together is small—around 51 minutes as of late February 2025—making it hard to draw definitive conclusions. Their defensive rating in these minutes is solid but not elite, and they’ve faced challenges starting games slowly, often needing to climb out of early deficits. Against top-tier playoff offenses like Boston or Denver, Lillard’s limitations could be exposed unless Rivers employs aggressive help schemes or staggers minutes to mask him with stronger defenders like Gary Trent Jr. or Kevin Porter Jr.


In playoff contexts, winning defensive formulas typically require staunch perimeter containment, rim protection, and minimal weak links. This unit has two of three: Giannis and Lopez provide interior defense, and Kuzma and Prince add versatility on the wings. But Lillard’s defensive shortcomings could be a liability against teams with dynamic guard play (e.g., Cleveland’s Donovan Mitchell or New York’s Jalen Brunson). The Bucks’ success may hinge on Rivers’ ability to tweak schemes—perhaps more switching or hedging to protect Lillard—and the unit’s cohesion as Kuzma and Prince settle into their roles alongside the stars.


Ultimately, this five-man unit has the potential to be a playoff-winning defensive formula, particularly against teams reliant on interior scoring or lacking elite guard penetration. Giannis’s improving on many of his weaknesses and Lopez’s rim presence give them a high floor, while Kuzma’s two-way contributions could be the X-factor. However, without Lillard elevating his defensive effort or the team masking his weaknesses, they might fall short against the most complete playoff offenses. As of now, they’re a strong but not flawless defensive group—capable of deep runs if paired with their potent offense, but not a guaranteed lockdown unit. More games together and playoff matchups will tell the full story.

To compare the five-man unit of Damian Lillard, Taurean Prince, Kyle Kuzma, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Brook Lopez to other Milwaukee Bucks lineups in the 2024-25 season, we’ll focus on their defensive performance, given the question about a “playoff-winning defensive formula.” The analysis will lean on available data and insights into how this lineup stacks up against other combinations used by the Bucks, particularly post-trade deadline (February 2025), when Kuzma joined the roster. Since exact advanced stats for every lineup aren’t fully detailed here, I’ll use reported metrics, trends, and player profiles to draw comparisons, emphasizing defensive ratings and playoff viability as of March 8, 2025.


The Lillard-Prince-Kuzma-Giannis-Lopez lineup has seen limited action—around 51 minutes by late February 2025—with a 4-1 record in games started together. Posts on X suggest a defensive rating of 135 in an earlier 19-minute sample, though more recent commentary indicates improvement, with a net rating of +43.8 and a defensive rating of 81.3 in a smaller post-All-Star break sample when AJ Green briefly replaced Prince. This variability highlights a small sample size and evolving performance. In contrast, other Bucks lineups from earlier in the season or with different personnel offer a broader baseline for comparison.


One notable pre-Kuzma lineup was Lillard-Malik Beasley-Khris Middleton-Giannis-Lopez, a frequent starting unit in 2023-24 and early 2024-25 before Middleton’s injury and Beasley’s departure. Last season, Bucks lineups with Giannis, Lillard, and Middleton posted a defensive rating of 107.5 across significant minutes, which would’ve ranked among the league’s best. This group relied on Lopez’s rim protection, but Beasley and Lillard were often exploited on the perimeter, a weakness that carried into early 2024-25. The current lineup swaps Beasley and Middleton for Prince and Kuzma, aiming for better size and versatility. Kuzma’s ability to guard wings (e.g., limiting Kawhi Leonard) and Prince’s effort on the ball outshine Beasley’s defense, though Lillard remains a constant liability. The older lineup’s defensive rating of 107.5 likely reflects a more stable, larger sample, but it lacked the switchability Kuzma brings, making the new unit potentially more adaptable despite early inconsistency.


Another comparison is the Lillard-Gary Trent Jr.-Kuzma-Giannis-Lopez lineup, used post-break in small doses. Many fans highlight a defensive rating of 81.3 when Trent replaces Prince, paired with an offensive rating of 125, yielding a +43.8 net rating—far superior to the 135 defensive rating in the Prince version’s early minutes. Trent’s superior three-point shooting (over 40% career) adds spacing, but his defensive impact is debated; he’s not a lockdown defender, though slightly better laterally than Prince. This suggests the Prince-to-Trent swap boosts offense significantly while maintaining or slightly improving defense, though both lineups lean heavily on Giannis and Lopez to anchor the paint. The Trent version’s gaudy numbers come from an even smaller sample, so sustainability in playoff minutes is uncertain.


A third comparison involves substituting Bobby Portis for Lopez, creating Lillard-Prince-Kuzma-Giannis-Portis. Portis, a key sixth man, returned from injury around late February 2025, and while exact stats for this lineup aren’t widely reported yet, we can infer its defensive profile. Portis offers hustle and rebounding but lacks Lopez’s shot-blocking (Lopez averages over 2 blocks per game, Portis under 1). This unit might post a higher defensive rating—potentially in the 110-115 range—due to weaker rim protection, a critical playoff asset. Against teams like Boston or Philadelphia with dominant bigs (Tatum, Embiid), Lopez’s presence is more valuable, making the Portis version less playoff-ready defensively despite its offensive punch.


The Lillard-Prince-Kuzma-Giannis-Lopez unit’s defensive evolution is promising but inconsistent. Its early 135 defensive rating reflects adjustment struggles post-Kuzma’s arrival, while the 81.3 with Trent or Green suggests potential when spacing improves. Compared to the 107.5 of the Lillard-Beasley-Middleton-Giannis-Lopez group, the current lineup’s floor is lower (due to Lillard’s exposure), but its ceiling might be higher with Kuzma’s two-way upside and Prince’s grit. Playoff success hinges on containing perimeter threats—something the older lineup struggled with against Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton in 2024. The Trent variant looks flashier, but its minutes are too few to trust fully, and the Portis swap sacrifices too much interior defense.


In summary, the Lillard-Prince-Kuzma-Giannis-Lopez lineup isn’t yet the Bucks’ most proven defensively—lagging behind the Middleton-era unit’s consistency—but its versatility gives it an edge over rigid predecessors. It outperforms Portis-led variants in rim protection but trails the Trent version in early returns. For playoff viability, it’s a work in progress, stronger than some past lineups in flexibility but needing time to gel and mask Lillard’s weaknesses better than its peers.

And of course I still believe the biggest problem is our favorite ball hog Giannis and his multiple serious flaws. Specifically in defense a good list I made is here.

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