I started looking at team stats and – predictably – in red circles the best of the league are the ones you expect more or less:
But then it gets interesting when you select to see stats only in games they lose:
The Bucks are the worse in assist ratio and defensive rebound share. This is something I have been shouting about all along. Giannis’ fans cherry pick averages. But he is much much worse when they lose:
His field goal percentage drops dramatically, he shoots more 3s weirdly, his free throw percentage drops as do his assists and blocks. This is a player with no bag. No options. No ability to change his games when his team needs him to. One trick pony, run and dunk. And when that doesn’t work, well Bucks are gonners.
Above his career stats, in red his best years. It is pretty clear that 2019-2020 was the pinnacle. Giannis has been going downhill ever since. But it is more nuanced of course because he still stat pads what he sees, ie points/rebounds/assists.
Advanced stats paint the picture even better. The only thing Giannis does ‘better’ is stat pad those defensive rebounds! You know the ones, he just waits for the ball as everyone else has cleared out of the paint after a missed shot.
Misc split stats? Same picture. Only personal fouls drawn got ‘better’ in 2022-2023 but you can’t really say that because he then misses the free throws. So in effect they are often a wasted offence and they damn sure stop the flow of the game for everyone!
2019-2020 Season: The Pinnacle
Not only his best ever but also the high-water mark from which his performance has steadily declined in nearly every facet of the game.
He won the Defensive Player of the Year award, anchoring a Bucks defense that allowed just 101.6 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor. His versatility—guarding point guards one possession and rim-protecting the next—made him the league’s most impactful defender. That season, he also claimed his second consecutive MVP award, joining an elite group of players to achieve that feat. Even his free-throw shooting (63.3%)—a perennial weakness—was better than it would be in subsequent years.
The Decline: Where It’s Gone Downhill
Since that peak, Giannis’s performance has trended downward in several key areas, despite the narrative of his continued greatness buoyed by the Bucks’ 2021 championship. Let’s break it down.
- Scoring Efficiency and Volume
In 2020-2021, his scoring dipped to 28.1 points per game on 56.9% shooting, still elite but a slight step back. By 2022-2023, he was at 31.1 points per game, but his field goal percentage dropped to 55.3%, and his free-throw shooting cratered to 64.5%. In the 2023-2024 season, he averaged 30.4 points on 61.1% shooting—an outlier year driven by an unsustainable spike in close-range efficiency—but his free-throw percentage plummeted to 65.7%. This season (2024-2025, as of March 20, 2025), early indications suggest he’s hovering around 30 points per game, but his efficiency is normalizing downward again. The trend? He’s relying more on volume than the effortless dominance of 2019-2020. - Playmaking
Giannis’s assist numbers peaked at 5.8 in 2022-2023, but his turnovers have crept up too—from 3.1 per game in 2019-2020 to 3.9 in 2023-2024. Defences have adjusted, doubling him more aggressively and forcing him to pass out of pressure. While he’s adapted, he’s not the same decisive playmaker he was when he could single-handedly collapse a defence and find open teammates with ease. - Defence
The most glaring decline has been on the defensive end. Since winning DPOY in 2020, Giannis hasn’t sniffed that level of impact. In 2023-2024, the Bucks’ defensive rating with him on the court was 112.8—solid, but a far cry from the stingy 101.6 of 2019-2020. Injuries, increased offensive load, and a less cohesive team defense have all played a role, but Giannis no longer strikes fear into opponents as a roaming disruptor. He’s still good, but not generational. - Free-Throw Woes
Giannis’s free-throw shooting has become a running joke. After hitting 63.3% in 2019-2020, it’s gotten worse almost every year: 68.5% in 2020-2021 (a fluke), 63.3% in 2021-2022, 64.5% in 2022-2023, and a dismal 65.7% in 2023-2024. Teams exploit this in close games, and it’s a glaring regression from even his modest 2019-2020 mark. - Postseason Struggles
The 2021 championship masks some of Giannis’s postseason decline. In 2019-2020, the Bucks were upset by the Miami Heat in the bubble, but Giannis was still a terror (albeit limited by injury). Since then, his playoff performances have been inconsistent—heroic in 2021 (35.2 points per game in the Finals), but underwhelming in 2023 (23.3 points on 49.2% shooting against Miami) and 2024 (hampered by injury again). He’s not elevating his game the way he once promised to.
Why the Decline?
Several factors explain this slide. First, wear and tear: Giannis has logged heavy minutes over the years, and injuries (knee, ankle, back) have piled up. Second, the league has adapted—teams now wall off the paint and dare him to shoot, exposing his lack of a reliable jumper. Very often a single defender can neutralise him. Third, the Bucks’ supporting cast and coaching have fluctuated, and since Giannis can’t adapt he has to wait for them to figure how to cover for his many weaknesses on the court. Finally, at 30 years old (as of December 2024), he’s no longer the ascendant freak of nature he was at 25. But mainly he seems to lack the basketball IQ on the court and the plain normal IQ to learn some new skills.
The chart above charts what he actually did instead of getting better. He focused on stat padding and damned be his team! Again notice the red circles (his best years ever in each stat) are firmly in the past.
Usage split stats from nba.com really paint the picture of his constant decline. This is not on the team, this is not just one or two games. Giannis sees these stats and simply will not or cannot improve.
Giannis Antetokounmpo’s 2019-2020 season was a perfect storm of youth, athleticism, and team synergy that made him the best player in the world. Since then he’s not an unstoppable force. Not when it counts. His efficiency, defensive impact, and overall dominance have waned, even as he’s added a championship to his resume. The Greek Freak’s peak came early and all available evidence suggests he’s been on a slow decline ever since.
For Bucks fans, the hope is he can recapture that magic—but for now, 2019-2020 stands as his crowning achievement.
