Over the years, analysts and fans alike have speculated about the evolution of his game, with one narrative gaining traction: Giannis has developed a reliable mid-range shot. This claim, however, is more myth than reality. While Giannis has shown flashes of mid-range competence in certain situations, the idea that he has a consistent, game-changing mid-range jumper—especially in tougher matchups and high-stakes games—doesn’t hold up under scrutiny.
The Statistical Mirage, especially in games they lose
To understand the myth, we first need to look at the numbers. Giannis has indeed increased his mid-range attempts over the years. According to NBA.com stats, in the 2020-21 season (his first MVP year with notable mid-range chatter), he took 2.1 mid-range shots per game, hitting them at a 41.8% clip. Fast forward to the 2023-24 season, and those numbers crept up slightly—2.5 attempts per game at a 43.1% success rate. On the surface, this looks like progress. For a player who once avoided the mid-range entirely, any improvement seems noteworthy.
However, these stats are misleading without context. Giannis mid-range volume remains a tiny fraction of his overall shot diet. Compare that to true mid-range maestros like Kevin Durant (over 30% of his shots from mid-range in 2023-24) or Chris Paul (a career mid-range savant), and it’s clear Giannis isn’t relying on this shot as a weapon. It just doesn’t add up to points that matter. More importantly, his efficiency drops significantly when facing elite defenses. In the 2023 playoffs, for instance, his mid-range shooting
plummeted to 36.4% against the Miami Heat, a team that clogged the paint and dared him to shoot. The numbers suggest competence in low-pressure scenarios—like regular-season games against weaker teams—but falter when the stakes rise. That pie chart on the right is his shots in losses. He turns to almost 80% dunking at the rim and forgets other distances.
Using just official stats from NBA.com here is this season Giannis in the games the Bucks lost. 36.4% of his mid range shots go in. Last season? 40.3% went in! So he isn’t improving at all in fact! If we filter for the harder matchups it gets even worse. He is only slightly better at 10-14ft, all other distances in the mid range he is shooting worse than last season. Alley oops, hook shots, finger rolls, layups, even dunk percentages are worse this season.
That is this season but look how much better he was last season!
The Eye Test: Form and Function
Beyond the stats, Giannis’ mid-range shot fails the eye test in tougher match ups. His jumper lacks the fluidity and consistency of players who thrive in that range. His shooting form—marked by a slow release, a slight hitch, and an awkward follow-through—telegraphs his intentions, giving defenders time to contest or recover. Against teams with length and discipline Giannis rarely pulls up confidently from 15 feet. Instead, he reverts to his bread and butter: bulldozing to the rim or kicking out to shooters.
That table above shows clearly how much worse Giannis is this season in most types of shots. If you don’t believe me go to the source, the official stats and see for yourself. He even misses more dunks this year!
Watch any high-stakes game, and the pattern emerges. In the 2021 Finals against the Phoenix Suns, Giannis attempted just 12 mid-range shots across six games, making five (41.7%). Most of his damage came at the rim (63.1% shooting on 84 attempts) or at the free-throw line (where he took a whopping 71 attempts). The mid-range was an afterthought, not a game-changer. Similarly, in the 2023 first-round loss to Miami, his mid-range attempts were sporadic and ineffective, often forced late in the shot clock rather than a deliberate part of Milwaukee’s strategy. Elite defenses know this and exploit it, sagging off him to protect the paint and living with the occasional jumper. Better still they keep him away from his favourite spots and he takes the bait, going to his bad side of the paint and missing.
Why It Doesn’t Matter in Big Games
The myth of Giannis’ mid-range development persists because it’s an appealing narrative. For a player with his physical gifts, adding a jumper would theoretically make him unstoppable. But in reality, it hasn’t—and doesn’t—materially affect games that matter.
1. Defensive Game Plans Don’t Change: Teams like Toronto (2019 ECF) and Miami (2020 and 2023 playoffs) built walls in the paint and begged Giannis to shoot from outside. His mid-range “improvement” hasn’t forced them to adjust. They still prioritize stopping his drives, and he hasn’t punished them enough to rethink that approach.
2. Playoff Pressure Magnifies Weaknesses: In the regular season, Giannis can feast on weaker teams with poor rim protection, occasionally mixing in a mid-range jumper to keep them honest. But in the playoffs, against top-tier coaching and personnel, his lack of confidence and consistency from that range becomes glaring. He hesitates, overthinks, or abandons the shot entirely.
3. Giannis is a liability in clutch. I outlined 5 very likely scenarios where Giannis should simply not be on the floor. He is shooting free throws worse than ever in his career. And 3points at a percentage that could be the worse for a season in NBA history. Yet he hasn’t got the basketball IQ to know to avoid them!
The Narrative vs. Reality
The idea that Giannis has “developed” a mid-range shot stems from a mix of selective highlights and wishful thinking. A pull-up jumper against the Charlotte Hornets in January gets replayed on SportsCenter, and suddenly he’s “expanding his game.” But those moments are outliers, not the norm. Analysts point to his work with shooting coaches or off season training clips, but the results don’t translate when it counts. The Bucks’ 2021 title run wasn’t fueled by mid-range mastery it was about Khris Middleton’s clutch shooting, Brook spreading the floor , a suffocating defence led by Jrue and a team that was one of the best from 3 that season.
Contrast Giannis with players like Nikola Jokić or Jayson Tatum, who seamlessly weave mid-range shots into their playoff arsenals. Jokić’s floater and fadeaway are lethal against any defence; Tatum’s pull-up keeps opponents guessing. Giannis lacks that dimension. And in tougher match ups against teams that can match his physicality or scheme him out of the paint it shows.
A Myth That Misses the Point
Giannis Antetokounmpo doesn’t have a reliable mid-range shot, and the claim that he’s developed one is a myth propped up by small sample sizes and optimistic storytelling. In games that matter most—playoff battles against elite foes—his mid-range game is non-existent or inconsequential. Defenses don’t respect it, and he doesn’t lean on it. If anything he is getting worse from mid range when it counts. So just stop regurgitating the myth, it isn’t helping Giannis at all.
