Greek Freak Analyzed

Category: STRATEGY

  • Will Giannis request a trade? No. Never.

    Will Giannis request a trade? No. Never.

    Google sometimes is illuminating.

    Is Giannis requesting a trade? Will he be goat? Will he win another ring? This is what people are asking Google. But then they also seem to very often ask “is Giannis injured” and “will he be playing tonight?”

    The Warriors have often been suggested as a potential trade target for Giannis. This reflects in Google searches. But not in reality.

    People love to play the “what if” game, imagining some sort of ultra team which would include their favorite players. Here is why Giannis will stay with the Warriors forever though:

    1. He has said so many times. This is the weakest of arguments. He may well be saying one thing officially but simultaneously allowing rumours to spread.
    2. He has made a big thing in the past about not joining ‘superteams’. Again he has backpedalled on this one, getting Lillard for starters. So doesn’t seem very valid.
    3. The Bucks have no incentive to make a trade. Why on earth would they ever allow it? So essentially he would have to ask for it. After all he has said about loving it there and the people and the city etc. Again, this is possible.

    So the commonly used reasons are weak. Here are the more realistic problems with Giannis going to another NBA team:

    4. He would have to pick a championship contender. Which current championship contender would even be able to combine Giannis in their roster though? Nobody! Here are the current bookie favourites for 2024-25 NBA Championship Odds:

    TeamOdds to Win
    Celtics+220
    Thunder+225
    Cavaliers+700
    Knicks+1400
    Nuggets+1400

    5. Giannis can’t play that kind of ball! Celtics, Thunder, Cavaliers, Nuggets rely on fast moving, extremely technical tactical basketball. Giannis knows one kind of game, the one where he brings the ball down and tries to dunk. They don’t need that, they don’t want that, he could not possibly fit with any of those teams. He lacks the speed of thought and the ability to understand advanced plays and basketball systems.

    6. Other teams would have to trade everything to get him. If the Knicks wanted him for example, they would essentially swap their existing super stars to get him. So the Bucks would become like the Knicks (currently 3d in the East) and the Knicks would be…well nothing. At best 5th in the East like the Bucks are now. So what is the point?

    7. The way Giannis has been promoted these past years has greatly reduced the trade value of all other players on the Bucks. Even Dame would likely not get much anymore because everyone was too busy blaming him since he came to the Bucks. So forget any interesting joint trade package. The Bucks have no chips to sit at the table with.

    8. Giannis is a seriously limited player, incompatible with the way the game is now played. He is one of the worse ball screeners, he doesn’t understand angles, he has the worse 3point shot in the history of the NBA, his free throws are getting worse, he is terrible in clutch situations. In essence a dinosaur. Don’t be fooled by the stat padding, the truth appears in the playoffs and harder matchups. He suddenly has no mid range and looks lost if his one trick pony approach doesn’t work.

    9. He seems to like the narrative of being a sole hero on a useless team. So why not continue? Everyone at the Bucks will treat him like a gracious hero and loyal player. He can pretend it was his choice to stay. He can smash various franchise records with the help of a team designed around him.

    10. He has an easy and obvious out. Returning to Greece to play with one of the Euroleague contenders. By then he can claim some old injury if he fails there too. But again he will be treated like a returning here in Greece.

    So rejoice Bucks fans! Looks like Giannis will stay in Milwaukee for a long time yet!

  • Giannis’ stat padding is costing the team

    Giannis’ stat padding is costing the team

    Here are the minutes per game in the Bucks’ championship year.

    A nice, even spread, five players above thirty minutes all

    close to each other. Eight after that also with meaningful minutes. This season it’s too early (Giannis missing games, Kuzma new in the rotation) but we can use last season to compare.

    That’s only 3 players above 30 minutes and only 6 above 20. So we have an older team in which fewer players are holding the ball for longer! And of course the prime suspect is Giannis who is holding the ball much more than in the championship year.

    So he sold away his friend Jrue to get Lillard the great ball handler and…Giannis handles the ball more instead of less! Pat and Brook have about the same possessions as they got back then, which isn’t much. About 9 and 5 usually which is basically nothing, they get the ball if everything else goes wrong or by accident. Khris fell from 18 to 11 due to injuries this season.

    At this point Bucks fans usually say “so what?” Giannis “has to” go above and beyond every night in order to win? But how does that help? He is clearly not helping his team improve like this. Maybe he should pay more attention to his GOAT Lebron who often doesn’t even score in the first quarter but takes a support role trying to get his team mates going.

    Just for comparison, this is the Memphis Grizzlies this season. Notice how evenly the playing time is spread across their players, resulting in them being much more energetic as a team. Oh and they are second in the standings.

  • Giannis is the ultimate business fail story for the Bucks*

    Giannis is the ultimate business fail story for the Bucks*

    Many years from now it will be shared in business school as an obvious blunder of epic dimensions. A franchise in a ‘small market’ (untrue but that is how it is presented) wins a championship after many years thanks to an amazing MVP player that everyone loves. And then…. constant failure as they drove themselves into the ground for another half century.

    But how?

    The rise of the Bucks I have documented here. They carefully traded players that could play around Giannis’ many weaknesses. And they won the NBA finals! Dream rag to riches story both for Giannis and the Bucks franchise. And that’s when the mistakes started:

    1. Overpromising. “Khris let’s run it back!” said an exuberant Giannis on winning the chip. Many players say this. It’s only natural when you are on top of the world. The problem is that they acted as if it would be easy. As if they deserved that championship. They didn’t.
    2. Running it back. It quickly became apparent that the team was nowhere near the other contenders. But the Bucks didn’t change anything. Some players read the signs and had had enough of the Giannis’ bullshit. Everyone was annoyed by the way he hogged the spotlight. But the media knew, anyone that knows ball knew. Giannis only got 1 vote for 1st place in MVP the next year. It was over. We all knew he can’t do clutch. And it just got worse because…
    3. Make it OK to blame everyone else. It’s either the coaching staff or the rest of the roster. And this is official, from the top, the Bucks’ marketing machine is promoting Giannis as the ultimate tool so indirectly answering the question “what is to blame for our failures?” with “well, must be something other than Giannis!”
    4. Catch22 of killing trade value for the rest of the roster. The Bucks are so busy protecting their investment in Giannis that they don’t realize that they are effectively killing their potential for trades. The NBA is no longer about throwing money around to get players. It is only about what assets you have that others want. But when you are constantly using the narrative of Giannis being perfect and everyone else to blame? Beverley , George Hill, Donte DiVincenzo were practically worthless as trade assets by the time the Bucks gave them away.
    5. Hiding Giannis in the playoffs with pretend injuries. It really doesn’t matter if he was genuinely injured or it was a ploy. The Bucks would have lost those series anyway. The fact of the matter is that they have hyped Giannis to overplay in the regular season by promoting his stats above everything and everyone else.
    6. Giannis weaknesses become apparent to all. This year they tried to spread the myth of Giannis mid range shot. It isn’t true of course. The NBA has moved ahead, the game is played in a way which makes Giannis almost irrelevant in the playoffs. Running and dunking, bully ball in the paint, only works in regular season match ups where the opponents don’t want to risk injury. Players like Wemby have the complete package. Giannis saying “I won’t take 3s” in a league of 3s is simply stupid. Especially when he is shooting the worse of any player in NBA history.

    So what will happen? These playoffs they will hope to get to the second round at least. Then they can pretend that

    • “with a few additions”
    • “with some changes to the coaching staff”
    • “with different tactics”

    or some other equally hairbrained excuse for dumbies, they will have a better chance next year. Then the season will roll as always, with the Bucks killing themselves to be high in the rankings in the regular season and failing again abysmally in the playoffs. Eventually Giannis will demand a trade if he has run out of excuses or if they lose badly enough from the first round.

    And it will be too late.

    Even without the significant potential for injury with the way he plays, the league has moved ahead without him. It’s not just his lack of 3. Giannis’ biggest problem is that he is one of the worse screeners in the NBA, he simply doesn’t understand angles at all. He can’t play advanced systems or even understand them. He can’t switch fast enough. He trains in such a stupid way that he is getting worse at free throws even. And most of all he is a victim of his own myth. He actually believes he is one of the best players in the NBA even though he lacks connections to the other players in meaningful ways and most don’t want him on their teams.

    So even if he changes team, Giannis will fail. Badly. Maybe a team that wants him to try hard in the regular season so they can rest their aging superstars for the playoffs. Will his ego allow him such a role? Can he handle being benched in the playoffs? In any case the Bucks will be without options, without a young core for the future and with a sad memory of what they think could have been.

    Feel free to use this for your MBA reading material. Don’t forget to play sad violin music while you read.

    *Giannis isn’t a fail story of course for himself personally, he is so rich that all this is almost irrelevant to him even if his career keeps on this downhill trajectory.

  • Do the Bucks win more without Giannis? (And why others don’t want him on their teams.)

    Do the Bucks win more without Giannis? (And why others don’t want him on their teams.)

    After losing to the Warriors last night, many Bucks’ fans claimed that if Giannis was in the roster it would have been different. Maybe they need to learn how to use Google.

    In the previous loss (similar score) Giannis got his stat padding done but it didn’t help.

    The game before that the Bucks won…because Curry was resting. In fact these two teams don’t meet up very often but it does seem as if a) the Warriors are far superior and b) they don’t really care. In March 2022 when they met, again Giannis got 31 points but it did no good. Klay Thompson got 38 and the Warriors won easily.

    The Top 10 in On-Ball Gravity as per Basketball index:

    1. Damian Lillard
    2. Jalen Brunson
    3. James Harden
    4. Stephen Curry
    5. Anthony Edwards
    6. Jayson Tatum
    7. Jalen Green
    8. Cade Cunningham
    9. Trae Young
    10. Luka Doncic

    Giannis can’t deal with the Warriors big when they want to defend him. They just don’t bother usually in the regular season because like everybody else in the league they are not stupid to risk injury against the stupid way Giannis plays.

    The speed of the Bucks offence would make it absolutely impossible for Giannis to play on their team. The trade rumours are completely stupid. Giannis can’t think that fast, let alone even understand the advanced plays the Warriors implement. Most importantly Giannis is one of the worse screeners in the NBA and screening is top priority for the Warriors. (Screening and getting away with it!)

    In the 2022-23 season, the Bucks were 11-8 without Giannis. Of course he often skips games he knows they will lose. Last season they won 49 games and lost 33. There are a few reasons why the Bucks might be more successful without Giannis. First, the Bucks play a more balanced style of offense without Giannis. When Giannis is playing, the Bucks tend to rely on him to create most of their offense and of course he holds the ball way too long. Without Giannis, the Bucks’ other players have to step up and contribute more on offense. Second, the Bucks play with more energy and effort without Giannis. When Giannis is playing, the Bucks can sometimes get complacent, knowing that Giannis won’t let them get involved anyway. Without Giannis, the Bucks have to play harder and more focused in order to win.

  • Giannis’ injury is good for everybody

    Giannis’ injury is good for everybody

    Giannis missing the All Star game really is great for the NBA. For starters he is boring as hell to watch. Really doesn’t contribute to the glamour or spectacle of the All Star weekend, just makes it awkward usually. Do you remember the Anteto brothers in the skills contest? Yeah, exactly.

    When the lights shine brightest Giannis and his clan simply never deliver. Even mic’ed up he is boring as watching paint dry:

    This is fine. Not every NBA player can be spectacular. Giannis is boring in the way he plays and slightly amusing sometimes when he cracks jokes in a way that appeals to a few fans. The more important reason for Giannis to sit out games is that the Bucks simply play better without him:

    That is the box score against the 76ers yesterday, a well rounded team performance. The ball moves better, defence is more agile. This isn’t just about Plus-Minus Metrics or APM. Offensive and defensive ratings are different and it really shows up what a practical problem Giannis is on the floor for any team with his lack of flexibility and emphasis on personal stat padding.

    I would go as far as to claim that it is even good for Giannis. He needs to take some time to reflect on the mess he has created in the Bucks over the years with his dumb demands and direct or indirect influence over trades all these years. His emphasis on strength training which has ruined his shooting. The way he stat pads and ruins the game flow. He needs to get people around him that don’t suck up and tell him facts as they are: he has low basketball IQ and needs help on the court. It simply isn’t working. The championship was a massive lucky fluke. He needs to rethink the way he shuns working with other NBA stars. He needs to rethink his whole approach to the game and training for it.

    Team chemistry and morale, the changes in playing style and strategy and of course the much increased opportunities for other players. Everyone bad mouthing the coaching staff now gets to see what they can do with players that can execute without Giannis impeding them. This Bucks team without Giannis is just that: a team.

  • No other superstar wants to play with Giannis

    No other superstar wants to play with Giannis

    Bucks’ fans like to think that everyone in the league would love Giannis on their team. Nothing could be further from the truth:

    1. Giannis is an incredibly inflexible player. To put it bluntly he can basically just do one thing well.
    2. Modern winning NBA is fast paced and extremely agile. Giannis isn’t. He can be fast but only downhill, with the ball in his hands and plenty space.
    3. On almost every metric, Giannis is worse than his prime MVP, DPOY and championship years. This includes not just free throws and 3pt% where he is at the bottom of the league but secondary stats like steals and such.
    4. Giannis has been spoilt by the Bucks for more than a decade, getting everything he asks for in and outside the court. Again people like to say he was “sad” when Jrue left or “like brothers” with Khris but of course he signed off on every trade.
    5. Giannis is absolutely terrible in clutch situations. Extremely low IQ and it shows. Other coaches and other players can see it even if you can’t. More than a decade in the NBA, almost every year early exits from the playoffs.
    6. Giannis simply cannot understand advanced plays. He started playing late in life and has no understanding of the complexities of the game.

    Do some teams want him anyway? Of course they do! He is a regular season monster, especially in games that nobody cares much about with his sheer insistence and energy. But it is working less and less. Many teams can shut him down with just one defender. His moves are predictable.

    But most other players don’t want to be anywhere near him. Over the years he has proved he can make everybody look bad. His lovable character bellies the fact that he is merciless in the final effect. Which is to always try to look like he is the only one on the team succeeding. Furthermore he doesn’t have social relationships with other players in the league from other teams other than his ex team mates. He doesn’t train with them in the summer, he doesn’t talk to them during the season. He has an infantile approach to the NBA (Jaylen Brown is spot on) which is a universe away from the way other players collaborate and compete.

    So don’t hold your breath. Even after failing the playoffs again this year he will struggle to find a team that would want him. And even if he does move he will fail even worse than he has done in recent seasons. The worse thing is, he never understands why…

  • The Bucks won’t even get to the 2nd round this year

    The Bucks won’t even get to the 2nd round this year

    Trading Khris Middleton was the final nail in the coffin of any playoff aspirations for the Bucks.

    As things stand, first round against the Pacers we all know how it ends. Even if the Pacers’ stars are injured , Siakam or Myles Turner know how to neutralise Giannis. We have seen it many times. Without Khris as an alternative threat there isn’t much hope. This isn’t a one off in season tournament game. Against the Knicks it would be even worse. In a seven game playoff series the Bucks lose badly. Again.

    That is the history. That is how big a fluke the championship run was. The Bucks with Giannis have failed consistently in the playoffs. Kuzma solves no problems. In fact he will struggle to find a role on the team next to ball dominant Giannis. While Kuzma can get hot from beyond the arc, his three-point shooting remains streaky. He’s not a knockdown shooter, which can sometimes limit his offensive impact and spacing for his team. Spacing is what Giannis needs, that is why they brought Lopez. Though he has the physical tools to be a solid defender, Kuzma sometimes lacks focus and consistency on that end of the floor. He can get caught ball-watching or lose his man, leading to easy baskets for opponents.

    Kuzma’s offensive assertiveness can sometimes turn into tunnel vision. He can force shots or miss open teammates when he’s focused on scoring, which can disrupt the flow of the offense. Which already doesn’t flow much because of ball hog Giannis. And Kuzma’s decision-making can be questionable. He might take a difficult shot early in the shot clock or make a risky pass that leads to a turnover. Improving his decision-making will make him a more efficient and reliable player.

    There have been instances where Kuzma’s maturity has been questioned. Whether it’s on-court antics or off-court comments, he can sometimes be a distraction for his team. Maintaining focus and composure will be crucial for his continued growth, will he be able to put up with Giannis? I think moving to the Bucks will test the limits of every aspect of Kuzma on and off the court.

    And failing horribly in the playoffs again will only make it worse.

  • The Bucks bench is rocking it: so what is to blame?

    The Bucks bench is rocking it: so what is to blame?

    It is so common to hear “no help” in relation to Giannis. But

    is it true? Let’s look at how many points the bench has scored in relation to other teams.

    So with only 48 games, the Bucks bench is much better than so many title contenders.

    And who are these players making the difference?

    In fact the Bucks’ good defensive periods are when the team does well.

    Looking at the breakdown per Bucks’ player, here are they are ranked by points made of players coming off the bench:

    So what is the problem? Giannis is! He is holding the ball too long in his constant stat padding efforts. It is ludicrous to have a forward on the top of the possession chart of a basketball team:

    Next time someone wants to complain about Pat, maybe look at that chart again. Connaughton had the ball 1/10th of the time that Giannis did. AJ Green 1/5th of the time. How on earth do you expect players to develop at all like that?

    SOURCE : AM Hoops, nba. com, statmuse. com

  • There is only one reason to trade Khris Middleton

    There is only one reason to trade Khris Middleton

    The Milwaukee Bucks are at a crossroads.  After a disappointing early exit from the playoffs, the whispers of change are growing louder, often fuelled by Giannis with direct or indirect statements.   One name that occasionally surfaces in these discussions, much to the chagrin of sensible fans, is Khris Middleton.  Let me be absolutely clear: trading Khris Middleton would be a colossal blunder, a self-inflicted wound that could cripple the Bucks’ championship aspirations for years to come.

    Here’s why:

    1. Proven Chemistry with Giannis:  The most obvious and crucial reason.  Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo have developed an unparalleled on-court synergy.  Their two-man game is lethal, a constant source of headaches for opposing defenses.  You don’t break up a dynamic duo like that unless you’re absolutely desperate.  The Bucks’ success is inextricably linked to the Middleton-Giannis connection.  Why mess with a winning formula?  Dame has improved but is nowhere near that.

    2. Elite Shot Creation:  Middleton’s ability to create his own shot, especially in clutch situations, is invaluable.  He’s a reliable scorer who can bail the Bucks out of stagnant offensive possessions.  When defenses tighten up on Giannis, Middleton provides a crucial release valve.  He can hit contested jumpers, drive to the basket, and draw fouls.  Replacing that level of shot creation wouldn’t be easy, and it certainly wouldn’t be cheap.  And remember, we are doing all this for the playoffs, so don’t tell me about some young unproven star. Very few people can operate at the top level and we know Khris is one of them.

    3. Playoff Experience:  Middleton has been through the playoff wars.  He’s seen it all, from nail-biting victories to heartbreaking defeats.  That experience is priceless, especially when the pressure mounts in the postseason.  He knows what it takes to compete at the highest level, and he can provide veteran leadership to a relatively young Bucks squad.  You can’t teach playoff experience; it’s earned.  Even Dame isn’t close to having similar experience.

    4. Consistent Scoring Threat:  Middleton is a consistent scorer, not just a volume shooter; he’s efficient, shooting a respectable percentage from the field and from three-point range.  His scoring punch provides balance to the Bucks’ offense, preventing them from becoming too reliant on Giannis.

    5. Contract Considerations (Less Onerous Than You Think):  Yes, Middleton’s contract is significant.  However, narratives around it being an albatross are often overblown.  While not a “bargain,” it’s a manageable contract for a player of his caliber.  And let’s be honest, contending teams always have big contracts on their books.  It’s the price of doing business.

    6. The Difficulty of Finding a Replacement:  Who are the Bucks going to trade Middleton for that will provide the same level of production, chemistry, and playoff experience?  The answer is likely no one.  Finding a player with his skillset and fit within the Bucks’ system would be incredibly difficult, if not impossible.  Trading him would likely create more problems than it solves.

    7. Intangibles:  Beyond the stats and highlights, Middleton brings a level of professionalism and composure to the Bucks.  He’s a team player, a good locker room presence, and a respected leader.  These intangibles are often overlooked, but they play a crucial role in team success.

    So trading Khris Middleton would be a shortsighted move that could seriously jeopardize the Bucks’ chances of competing for a championship. He’s a vital piece of the puzzle, a perfect complement to Giannis, and a proven winner.  The Bucks should be building around Middleton and Giannis, not looking for ways to break them up.  But all this is yet another Giannis mistake. That’s the only reason all this discussion keeps coming around. Front office feel they have to look like they tried everything, even though they know they can’t anyone better than Khris to help with any (very small) chances of a playoff run.  The only reason anyone is even discussing this stupidity is the ridiculous narrative that Giannis is the only player worth anything on the Bucks roster, the lone hero fighting with no help.

    Any talk of trading Khris should be immediately shut down.  It’s not just a bad idea; it’s basketball malpractice.

  • The Bucks are at a dead end. And it’s on Giannis

    The Bucks are at a dead end. And it’s on Giannis

    A long time ago, as they often recount the tale, the Bucks brought a young athletic boy to their town. Sure he couldn’t dribble or shoot, but his body had amazing and unique characteristics. And he worked really hard. And the Bucks did everything they could to make him comfortable, brought his family over and much more.

    So as he started playing he won people over with his smile. It also became apparent he needed a mentor on the court, Khris was ideal and he has done it selflessly for all these years. Giannis had no clue about how the NBA game worked. Khris took the slack for him in any situation that Giannis couldn’t understand or simply lacked the skills.

    In defence that was Jrue’s job. Giannis can’t read opponents. He can’t operate fast enough. So Jrue plugged the holes. As the Bucks playing style evolved to suit Giannis they looked for young, cheap and no ego sharp shooters to spread around the floor. And when it came time for a center to help in the paint, they picked Brook precisely because of his lethal (and then quite unique for a big) 3 point ability.

    And it worked! With a lot of good luck in the playoffs and thanks to Khris, Jrue and Brook they got Giannis to the Finals. That series was the Bucks’ to lose as it turned out and they quite easily won it. Giannis even had an epic 50 point game for the books. Heck he even scored free throws! And what did he do?

    In the ultimate show of inexperience he said, implied and outright shouted two pretty lethal messages:

    1. I did this the right way, no help, no superteam
    2. We are going to run it back next year.

    1. About the “right way” he was soooo wrong. As I explain here that Bucks team was a superteam. But most importantly Giannis proclaimed to the whole world that he was the Bucks. On his own. Solo. No super team, just a bunch of losers and him.

    2. So they didn’t “run it back”. Αny player staying on after this had to further suck up any ego or leave. The narrative almost every game the Bucks lost from then on is “Giannis tried but was let down by the rest of the roster.” Every single time. He is busy stat padding, hogging the ball, everyone else looks terrible.

    What player in his right mind would even consider joining such a team? You would have to be pretty desperate, have no ego and no other offers. Enter poor Damien Lillard. A player who almost damaged the Blazers in a similar fashion except he is smarter and the Blazers realised it sooner and built a young core better. And of course Dame starts and gets the same abuse as everyone else. He has to work with Giannis’ inferior basketball IQ yet not make him look bad on court. This is a conundrum that Khris had figured out to a certain extent but is getting too old to carry for a whole game like he used to. Dame has to wait for Giannis to do his thing and if he gets stuck in traffic has to hope Giannis will see him so that he can get a – usually terrible – pass from him to try and score with little time and with the entire opponent’s roster knowing that he has few options.

    So Dame does the Khris thing. In crunch time Giannis just keeps giving him the ball as if saying “dude I have no idea what to do when up against teams that actually defend against me!” The problem is that Giannis has believed his own hype. He keeps training for strength, he keeps trying to play bully ball, he just looks at points/assists/rebounds at the end of the game as if that is all that matters. When they win in the regular season against lesser opponents the NBA media and the Bucks marketing team shout a lot about his personal stats looking for rare and weird ones like 30point games with more than 3.14 times rotation of the Earth around Jupiter while the game was being played. When they lose against better opponents or anyone that bothers to defend Giannis with a bit of effort it is “Giannis tried but XYZ.” The narrative is always “Giannis is top dog, must be the rest of them at fault“.

    And he is killing the Bucks in the meantime.

    (PS Tonight the Bucks lost to the Blazers. Giannis was “player of the game” according to Bucks marketing and many fans. How does that make sense? He controlled the game most of the time other than the first quarter when he let Dame bring the ball down for a while. He just kept running the same play and forcing the Bucks to play in the same way even though it was clearly not working. What would his idol Lebron James have done? Got more players involved. Changed it up. At worse Giannis should have left the younger players get more minutes. You are not the “best player” when you are effectively killing your team both short term and in the long term.)