Category: PREGAME ANALYSIS

Giannis vs Valančiūnas. Yet another game to make Giannis’ life easy

Lithuania’s national basketball team is gearing up for a crucial quarterfinal matchup against Greece in the FIBA EuroBasket 2025, scheduled for September 9, 2025, in Riga, Latvia. With Giannis Antetokounmpo (the “Greek Freak”) leading Greece and coming off a dominant 37-point, 10-rebound performance in their Round of 16 win over Israel, the question of who—or what—can contain him is front and center. Giannis, a two-time NBA MVP and one of the most unstoppable forces in international basketball, has been averaging over 25 points per game in the tournament while extending his streak of 25+ point outings to 10 straight. Stopping him entirely is a tall order—no one has truly done it this tournament—but Lithuania has a fighting chance thanks to their physical style, rebounding dominance (leading the event at 42.2 rebounds per game), and a key big man matchup.

Key Player to Watch: Jonas Valančiūnas

Lithuania’s best hope lies with veteran center Jonas Valančiūnas, the 6’11” (2.11m) Toronto Raptors big man who’s been a cornerstone of the Lithuanian team for over a decade. At 33 years old, Valančiūnas brings NBA-level physicality, with career averages of 11.3 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 0.6 blocks per game in the league. He’s no stranger to defending elite forwards like Giannis—during their time as Eastern Conference rivals, Valančiūnas has guarded him in regular-season matchups, using his strength and positioning to contest drives and limit second-chance opportunities.

In EuroBasket 2025 so far, Valančiūnas has been solid, averaging around 12 points and 10 rebounds while anchoring Lithuania’s interior defense. His role will be pivotal:

Physical matchup: At similar height and with a stockier build (265 lbs/120 kg vs. Giannis’s 242 lbs/110 kg), Valančiūnas can body up on post-ups and fight for position on rebounds. Lithuania’s team-wide rebounding edge (they’ve out-rebounded opponents by double digits in group play) could neutralize Giannis’s transition and putback threats.
Team strategy: Expect coach Marius Žukauskas to deploy a “help-and-recover” scheme, with wings like Deividas Sirvydis or Eimantas Bendžius sagging off shooters to double-team Giannis in the paint. Greece shoots 40.7% from three (second-best in the tournament), so Lithuania’s poor 27% three-point accuracy must improve to open driving lanes and force Giannis into tougher shots.
Head-to-head history: In past international clashes (e.g., 2019 FIBA World Cup qualifiers), Valančiūnas has held his own against Giannis, limiting him to under 20 points in one game by clogging the lane and forcing kick-outs. Giannis thrives on transition and mismatches, but Lithuania’s disciplined half-court defense—rooted in the “Lithuanian school of basketball” praised by Greece’s coach Vassilis Spanoulis—could slow him down.

Challenges for Lithuania

Lithuania’s supporting cast (e.g., Rokas Giedraitis for perimeter help or Martynas Gecevičius off the bench) must stay disciplined to avoid fouls, as Giannis draws contact masterfully (he’s shooting 80%+ from the free-throw line in the tournament). If Greece’s shooters like Georgios Papagiannis or Tyler Dorsey get hot from deep, it pulls Valančiūnas out of the paint, creating mismatches.

Lithuania has “someone” in Valančiūnas to at least challenge Giannis and make it a battle inside, potentially turning the game into a gritty, low-scoring affair where their rebounding and free-throw attempts (they rank top-5 in attempts) shine. Historical head-to-heads are split (Lithuania 3-2 in the last five), and with home-crowd energy from their passionate fans, they could pull off the upset to advance to the semifinals. But if Giannis exploits switches or gets hot early, it could be a long night—expect a close one, with the winner decided by who controls the glass and forces turnovers.

So once again Giannis is lucky in this tournament. He avoided Nurkic because he knew he would lose against him and look bad. Now the aging Valančiūnas on a clearly inferior team to Greece has a tough assignment. Greece should win easily and Giannis has the upper hand thanks to his multiple helpers on court. This could be the easiest team route to the semifinals ever for Greece.

Below their matchup history:

Valančiūnas was with the Raptors for the early matchups, then moved to the Grizzlies (2019-21), Pelicans (2021-24), and Nuggets (2024-25). Games are regular season unless noted as playoffs. For brevity, I’ve focused on core stats—full box scores include turnovers and fouls where noted.

Date	Teams (Home/Away for Bucks)	Score	Result (for Bucks)	Giannis Stats (PTS/REB/AST/FG%/Other)	Valančiūnas Stats (PTS/REB/AST/FG%/Other)
Nov 2, 2013	Bucks @ Raptors	90-97	L	2/2/0, 1-2 FG (50%), 17 MIN, 1 STL	7/6/0, 3-8 FG (38%), 16 MIN, 2 TO
Jan 13, 2014	Bucks vs Raptors	94-116	L	11/7/4, 5-10 FG (50%), 33 MIN, 2 STL, 1 BLK, 4 TO	17/10/0, 5-10 FG (50%), 32 MIN, 1 BLK, 4 TO
Apr 5, 2014	Bucks @ Raptors	98-102	L	4/4/2, 1-6 FG (17%), 25 MIN	17/13/3, 7-11 FG (64%), 34 MIN, 1 BLK
Apr 14, 2014	Bucks @ Raptors	100-110	L	9/6/0, 4-9 FG (44%), 27 MIN, 1 BLK	14/13/1, 5-11 FG (45%), 28 MIN, 1 STL, 1 BLK
Nov 21, 2014	Bucks @ Raptors	82-124	L	7/2/2, 1-4 FG (25%), 15 MIN, 5-7 FT (71%), 1 STL	18/12/0, 6-7 FG (86%), 21 MIN, 6-6 FT (100%)
Jan 19, 2015	Bucks vs Raptors	89-92	L	6/3/5, 3-8 FG (38%), 33 MIN, 3 STL, 1 BLK	11/13/0, 5-8 FG (63%), 19 MIN, 1 STL, 1 BLK, 5 TO
Feb 2, 2015	Bucks @ Raptors	82-75	W	12/12/3, 4-9 FG (44%), 35 MIN, 2 BLK	12/13/0, 6-9 FG (67%), 25 MIN, 1 BLK
Nov 1, 2015	Bucks @ Raptors	87-106	L	20/9/2, 8-12 FG (67%), 33 MIN, 1-1 3PT (100%), 1 BLK	19/8/0, 7-12 FG (58%), 29 MIN, 2 STL
Nov 25, 2016	Bucks vs Raptors	99-105	L	29/6/11, 12-17 FG (71%), 35 MIN, 4 TO	12/7/0, 6-11 FG (55%), 31 MIN
Dec 12, 2016	Bucks @ Raptors	100-122	L	30/9/5, 13-23 FG (57%), 39 MIN, 3 STL	11/12/1, 4-9 FG (44%), 23 MIN
Jan 27, 2017	Bucks @ Raptors	86-102	L	19/6/8, 7-15 FG (47%), 33 MIN, 3 BLK, 3 TO	8/11/1, 4-10 FG (40%), 24 MIN, 1 STL, 2 BLK

2017 Playoffs (First Round: Raptors vs Bucks, Raptors won series 4-2)

These were intense physical matchups, with Valančiūnas providing interior defense against a rising Giannis. Giannis averaged 24.8 PTS, 9.5 REB, 4.0 AST in the series, while Valančiūnas averaged 11.2 PTS, 10.5 REB.

Date	Game #	Score	Result (for Bucks)	Giannis Stats	Valančiūnas Stats
Apr 15, 2017	Game 1 (Bucks @ Raptors)	97-83	W	28/8/3, 9-13 FG (69%), 2 BLK	5/10/0, 2-7 FG (29%), 1 BLK
Apr 18, 2017	Game 2 (Bucks @ Raptors)	100-106	L	24/15/7, 10-20 FG (50%), 3 BLK	10/13/0, 4-6 FG (67%), 1 BLK
Apr 20, 2017	Game 3 (Bucks vs Raptors)	104-77	W	19/8/2, 8-14 FG (57%), 2 BLK	7/6/0, 3-7 FG (43%)
Apr 22, 2017	Game 4 (Bucks vs Raptors)	76-87	L	34/9/3, 14-24 FG (58%), 2 BLK	13/8/1, 5-9 FG (56%), 1 BLK
Apr 24, 2017	Game 5 (Bucks @ Raptors)	93-118	L	30/9/3, 12-19 FG (63%), 3 BLK	8/9/1, 4-5 FG (80%)
Apr 27, 2017	Game 6 (Bucks vs Raptors)	89-92	L	34/9/3, 13-23 FG (57%), 2 BLK	19/11/1, 6-10 FG (60%), 3 BLK

September 8, 2025

EuroBasket 2025 Represents Giannis’ Antetokounmpo’s Best Shot at International Glory with Greece
As the FIBA EuroBasket 2025 tournament unfolds across Cyprus, Finland, Latvia, and Poland, basketball fans worldwide are witnessing a pivotal moment for one of the game’s greatest talents: Giannis Antetokounmpo. The “Greek Freak,” a two-time NBA MVP and champion with the Milwaukee Bucks, has long dominated the league but has yet to secure a major medal on the international stage with his home country. Greece’s last EuroBasket podium finish was a bronze in 2009, and while Giannis has led them to respectable showings—like a quarterfinal exit in 2022—the stars have never quite aligned for a breakthrough.

Fast forward to September 2025, and the landscape looks dramatically different. With the tournament already underway (as of September 1, Greece sits undefeated after strong wins over Cyprus and Georgia, including a 27-point outburst from Giannis against the latter), this could be the perfect storm for Greece to medal. Why? A combination of Giannis’ prime form, a solid supporting cast, and—crucially—weaknesses plaguing many of the traditional favorites. Several powerhouse teams are missing key stars due to injuries, fatigue from the 2024 Olympics and NBA seasons, or strategic rest ahead of the 2025-26 NBA campaign. This has opened up the field, making a medal not just possible but potentially “easy” for a Giannis-led Greece if they capitalize. They come first in their (let’s face it, very easy) first phase, then meet Israel and Latvia and presto! Quarterfinals. It is very doable and very likely.

Drawing from FIBA’s Smart Power Rankings and betting insights, Serbia tops the list, followed by Germany, France, and others like Lithuania, Slovenia, Turkey, Latvia, and Italy. Greece ranks fourth in those rankings, but with the absences hitting rivals hard, their path to the podium (top three) looks clearer than ever.

Serbia: The Undisputed Favorites, But Not Invincible

Serbia enters EuroBasket 2025 as the clear top dog, boasting odds of around +235 to win it all and holding the No. 1 spot in FIBA’s power rankings. Led by three-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokić of the Denver Nuggets, who is participating and already making waves, they have a stacked roster including Bogdan Bogdanović (Atlanta Hawks) and Nikola Milutinov. Their depth and chemistry make them a force—Jokić’s playmaking and scoring (he’s among the top players to watch) could carry them far.

But even Serbia isn’t without cracks this time. Jokić, fresh off a grueling NBA season and the 2024 Olympics (where Serbia earned silver), might face fatigue as the tournament progresses into its knockout stages ending September 14. Their overreliance on Jokić could be exploited if opponents like Greece force him into foul trouble or double-teams—something Giannis, with his defensive versatility, is uniquely equipped to handle. Historically, Serbia has dominated (runners-up in 2017), but in a field where other teams are depleted, any slip-up (e.g., injuries to supporting players like Vasilije Micić) could open the door. For Greece, avoiding Serbia until the finals might be key, but this isn’t the unbeatable juggernaut of past cycles.

As Serbia’s captain and all-time leading scorer, Bogdanović brings irreplaceable experience and clutch performance to the squad. His elite three-point shooting (often around 40-50% in international play), playmaking, and ability to create off the dribble complement Jokić’s interior dominance, forming a dynamic inside-out threat that opponents struggle to contain. Without him, Serbia’s offense becomes more predictable, relying heavily on Jokić, which could lead to fatigue for the superstar center or force less experienced players like Vasilije Micić or Ognjen Jaramaz into expanded roles they’re not fully prepared for. Defensively, his length and instincts help guard multiple positions, a loss that’s particularly felt against versatile wings from teams like Germany or Greece. Despite Nikola Jokić’s NBA dominance, the Basketball Federation of Serbia selected Bogdanović as the top player for the year, recognising his consistent international impact over Jokić’s occasional absences. His injury changes everything.

Germany: World Champs With Lingering Questions

As the reigning FIBA World Cup champions from 2023, Germany sits at No. 2 in the power rankings with odds around +650. Their core remains intact: Dennis Schröder (Brooklyn Nets), Franz Wagner (Orlando Magic), Moritz Wagner (Orlando Magic), and Daniel Theis (New Orleans Pelicans) are all suiting up, providing NBA-caliber talent across positions. Franz Wagner, in particular, ranks among the top NBA players at the tournament.

Yet, Germany is weaker than their 2023 squad due to the absence of some depth pieces and the toll of recent international play. The Wagner brothers and Schröder played heavy minutes in the 2024 Olympics (Germany exited in the quarters), and fatigue could set in during a condensed EuroBasket schedule. Moreover, their frontcourt lacks the dominant size to consistently counter superstars like Giannis or Jokić— Theis is solid but not elite. Pre-tournament predictions note Germany as a contender, but not the favorite, with some analysts questioning their ability to repeat without fresh legs. For Greece, this means a winnable matchup if they meet in the knockouts; Giannis’ athleticism could overwhelm Germany’s perimeter-oriented style.

France: A Powerhouse Gutted by Absences

France, bronze medalists at the 2024 Olympics and No. 3 in power rankings with +900 odds, would normally be a medal lock. But this edition is arguably their weakest in years, thanks to a slew of high-profile skips. Star center Victor Wembanyama (San Antonio Spurs) is out due to health concerns (a blood clot issue), Rudy Gobert (Minnesota Timberwolves) is resting after a long season and Olympics, Mathias Lessort is absent, and Evan Fournier is also missing. Even Vincent Poirier, another key big, is sidelined.

This leaves France’s frontcourt painfully thin—relying on players like Guerschon Yabusele and Nicolas Batum, who are talented but lack the rim protection and rebounding Gobert provides. Their perimeter game (with Isaïa Cordinier and others) is decent, but without their twin towers, they struggle against physical teams like Greece. Analysts have downgraded France significantly, with some predicting they might not even medal. For Giannis, this is a dream scenario: France’s weakened interior plays right into his slashing, dunking style, making a potential matchup a golden opportunity for Greece to advance.

Lithuania: Missing Their Anchor in the Paint

Lithuania, a perennial EuroBasket contender (No. 5 in rankings), thrives on tough, team-oriented play. They have Jonas Valančiūnas (Washington Wizards) anchoring the center spot, but the glaring absence is Domantas Sabonis (Sacramento Kings), who is skipping the tournament—likely due to rest after the Olympics and NBA commitments. Sabonis’ playmaking and scoring from the post were crucial in past runs (like their 2023 World Cup semis), and without him, Lithuania’s offense lacks fluidity.

Their guard play (Rokas Jokubaitis, etc.) is solid, but the team is vulnerable to elite bigs like Giannis, who could dominate the boards and paint. Previews highlight Lithuania as a dark horse, but the Sabonis void drops them from true favorite status. Greece, with Giannis’ brothers Thanasis and Kostas providing depth, has the physicality to exploit this—making Lithuania a beatable foe en route to a medal.

Slovenia: Doncic’s One-Man Show Amid Fatigue Concerns

Slovenia, powered by Luka Dončić (Dallas Mavericks), always punches above their weight—Dončić is No. 3 among top NBA players here. But with odds around +1200 or lower, they’re not top-tier favorites. Dončić, who slimmed down for the tournament, is fresh off a deep NBA Finals run and Olympics, raising fatigue risks—he’s already logged a historic triple-double early on.

The supporting cast (Vlatko Čančar, Mike Tobey) is serviceable but thin—Slovenia often relies on Dončić heroics, which can falter against balanced teams. If Greece draws them, Giannis’ defense could neutralize Luka, exposing Slovenia’s lack of depth. This vulnerability makes them less threatening than in 2017, when they won gold.

Other Contenders: Turkey, Latvia, Italy, and Spain’s Diminished Threats
- Turkey (No. 6): Led by Alperen Şengün (Houston Rockets), they’re rising but young and inconsistent. No major absences, but their inexperience could show in knockouts—Greece’s veteran presence (Thomas Walkup, Kostas Sloukas) gives them an edge.
- Latvia (No. 7): Kristaps Porziņģis (Atlanta Hawks? Wait, Boston Celtics) is a star, but Latvia’s overall roster lacks NBA depth. As a dark horse, they’re beatable if Porziņģis is contained.
- Italy (No. 8): Simone Fontecchio (Miami Heat) and Danilo Gallinari lead, but Donte DiVincenzo’s skip hurts their guard play. Inconsistent historically, they’re not a major roadblock. Case in point , Fontecchio was terrible against Greece and they lost.
- Spain: Once dominant, they’re in transition post-golden generation. With only Santi Aldama (Memphis Grizzlies) as a notable NBAer, they’re outside the top 8 and vulnerable.
Why This Equals Greece’s Perfect Opportunity

Greece’s roster, finalized with Giannis at the helm alongside his brothers, Walkup, and Sloukas, is built for success. In an easy Group C (with Cyprus, Georgia, Bosnia), they’ve already cruised to wins, preserving energy. The absences across Europe—over 9 noteworthy NBA players skipping, including Wembanyama and Gobert—have leveled the playing field like never before. While Serbia and Germany remain tough, the diluted competition means Greece can realistically aim for silver or bronze by navigating a softer bracket.

For Giannis this is the moment. Post-2024 Olympics fatigue has sidelined rivals, but he’s committed and dominant. If Greece medals, it’ll be a testament to seizing this wide-open window. Basketball purists, keep watching—history might be in the making. Not because Giannis has improved but because this year Greece has the easiest path to a medal.
September 1, 2025
Settings expectations on Giannis and Greece for Euro 2025
Greece enters EuroBasket 2025 with high hopes for ending a 16-year medal drought, and much of the nation’s ambition centers on the performance of Giannis Antetokounmpo. The expectations are clear: Greece is aiming for a podium finish, and Giannis is expected to deliver extraordinary statistics and iconic moments worthy of his NBA superstar status.

Greece’s Medal Expectations

Greece has not won a EuroBasket medal since 2009 but with Giannis at the helm and a roster that blends experienced leaders like Kostas Sloukas with promising talent, the team is considered a dark horse with legitimate medal ambitions. They face tough group-stage opponents, including Spain and Italy, yet pre-tournament friendlies have shown strong performances against quality teams, and the fanbase is energized for a breakthrough.

Group Draw and Knockout Prospects

Greece competes in Group B against Spain, Italy, Georgia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Cyprus, with the top four teams progressing to the knockout stage. The path to a medal demands not just advancing from the group but also overcoming European giants in the elimination rounds. Greece’s experience, defensive tenacity, and the inspiration drawn from Giannis serve as crucial factors. Can Giannis rise to the occasion or will he be content to simply make personal stats like he did with the Bucks this season?

Statistical Expectations for Giannis

Giannis is anticipated to lead all scorers at EuroBasket 2025, with projections that he may need to average at least 25 points per game for Greece to contend for a medal. FIBA rules generally reduce stat lines compared to the NBA, but Giannis’s role as primary scorer, rebounder, and playmaker should result in eye-catching numbers. The bar for Giannis is set at:
- Scoring: 25+ points per game—potentially the highest in the tournament
- Rebounds: 10+ per game, leveraging his athleticism and defensive skill
- Assists: 6+ per game, given Greece’s increased transition play under coach Spanoulis
Additionally, Giannis is expected to deliver a defining performance. Something like a 30+ point, double-digit rebound showcase against a major rival like Spain or Italy could become the tournament’s iconic highlight. Giannis needs this in order to preserve the narrative that he is fantastic and it is only his lack of good team mates that keeps him from success.

We do NOT expect Giannis to shoot 3pt at all. In the NBA this season he shot them much less and it was still his worse year ever and one of the worse single 3pt % in the history of the NBA. Same with free throws. His worse career year in the NBA. In many respects Giannis is past his prime. He will really need to focus and hope that Euro2025 opponents are more concerned to stay healthy and avoid injury as he gallops towards them like Porzingis did in the friendly game they recently played.

Iconic Performance and Leadership

Tournaments are marked by unforgettable moments, and fans and analysts expect Giannis to provide the emotional and athletic centrepiece of EuroBasket 2025. His leadership during clutch possessions, ability to shine in transition, and capacity to break defensive schemes will be pivotal.

Will Giannis reach these goals?

The Greek national team will rely on Giannis Antetokounmpo’s elite production and leadership to push for a medal at EuroBasket 2025. From statistical dominance (25+ points, 10+ rebounds per game) to a defining tournament moment, the expectations are both high and inspiring for Greek basketball. Greece not making it to the top 4 of the tournament will clearly be an indictment on Giannis and possibly a good reason for him not to return to the Greek national team again. After so many years with no results this could be the final opportunity.

Select relevant sources to this article:
Featured image from here https://www.fiba.basketball/en/events/fiba-eurobasket-2025-qualifiers/news/locked-in-giannis-confirms-plans-for-fiba-eurobasket-2025
August 28, 2025
The Pacers will throw game 3. Here is why
The Pacers have no reason to win Game 3 against the Bucks. They are much better off losing and then winning the next two games. Estimating the revenue from an extra home game for the Indiana Pacers against the Milwaukee Bucks in the 2025 NBA playoffs involves analysing ticket sales, concessions, merchandise, and other game-day income sources.

Key Revenue Streams
1. Ticket Sales:
- Average Ticket Price: The average ticket price for Pacers games at Gainbridge Fieldhouse is around $76, though playoff games often command higher prices. For a high-profile playoff game against the Bucks, prices could range from $100 to $150 on average, with premium seats (courtside, lower bowl) pushing the average higher.
- Attendance: Gainbridge Fieldhouse has a capacity of approximately 18,165 for basketball. The Pacers averaged 17,274 fans per game in the 2024-25 regular season, with playoff games often selling out. Assuming a near-capacity crowd of 18,000 for a playoff game:
  - Revenue = 18,000 × $125 (conservative average ticket price) = $2,250,000.
- Playoff games typically see a price premium. If prices average $150, revenue could reach $2,700,000.
1. Concessions:
- Fans spend roughly $15–$25 per person on food and beverages, based on NBA arena averages. For 18,000 attendees spending $20 each:
  - Revenue = 18,000 × $20 = $360,000.
- High-demand playoff games may increase per-capita spending slightly, potentially pushing this to $400,000.
1. Merchandise:
- In-arena merchandise (jerseys, hats, etc.) generates about $5–$10 per fan. Assuming $7 per attendee:
  - Revenue = 18,000 × $7 = $126,000.
- Playoff games boost merchandise sales due to fan excitement, so this could rise to $150,000.
1. Parking and Miscellaneous:
- Parking at Gainbridge Fieldhouse costs $15–$30 per vehicle. Assuming 5,000 vehicles (accounting for carpooling) at $20 each:
  - Revenue = 5,000 × $20 = $100,000.
- Other revenue (e.g., in-arena sponsorships, VIP packages) could add $50,000–$100,000.
Total Estimated Revenue
- Conservative Estimate:
- Tickets: $2,250,000
- Concessions: $360,000
- Merchandise: $126,000
- Parking/Misc.: $150,000
- Total: $2,886,000
- Optimistic Estimate (higher ticket prices, increased spending):
- Tickets: $2,700,000
- Concessions: $400,000
- Merchandise: $150,000
- Parking/Misc.: $200,000
- Total: $3,450,000
Considerations
- Playoff Context: The Pacers and Bucks met in the 2025 Eastern Conference First Round, with the Pacers leading 2-0 after home games on April 19 and 22. An extra home game would likely be a playoff game, increasing demand and prices.
- Costs: Revenue is offset by operational costs (staffing, utilities, player bonuses), which can range from $500,000 to $1,000,000 per game. Net profit would be lower, likely $2,000,000–$2,500,000.
- Revenue Sharing: The NBA’s revenue-sharing model and gate receipt splits (home team keeps ~60–70% of ticket revenue after league taxes) reduce the Pacers’ take slightly.
- Fan Experience: A review on Ticketmaster praised the Pacers’ game experience, noting reasonable concession prices and high fan engagement, which supports strong attendance and spending.
It’s a lot of money!

The Indiana Pacers would likely generate $2.9 million to $3.5 million in gross revenue from an extra home game against the Milwaukee Bucks, with net profit around $2.0 million to $2.5 million after costs and revenue sharing. This estimate assumes a sold-out playoff game with elevated ticket prices and typical fan spending patterns.

The idea that smaller-market NBA teams, like the Indiana Pacers, might consider losing games intentionally to extend a playoff series and play more home games for revenue raises ethical and competitive concerns. Let’s break down the fairness and implications of such a strategy.

Why Smaller Teams Might Be Tempted
- Financial Incentive: As estimated, a single home playoff game can generate $2.9M–$3.5M in revenue for the Pacers. Smaller-market teams, with less lucrative local TV deals and sponsorships compared to big-market teams (e.g., Lakers, Knicks), rely heavily on game-day revenue. Extending a series by even one home game can significantly boost their budget.
- Revenue Disparity: In the 2023-24 season, the Pacers’ franchise value was $3.48B (24th in the NBA), far below the Knicks ($7.43B) or Lakers ($7.34B). Big-market teams benefit from larger fan bases and media markets, while smaller teams like Indiana, Memphis, or Oklahoma City face tighter financial constraints.
- Playoff Structure: The NBA playoff format (best-of-seven series) means a team can lose games and still advance, potentially incentivizing strategic losses to secure extra home games (e.g., losing a road game to force a Game 5 or 7 at home).
Is It Unfair?
1. To Fans:
- Fans pay high prices for tickets (e.g., $100–$150 for Pacers playoff games) expecting maximum effort. Intentionally losing undermines trust and devalues the fan experience, especially for loyal smaller-market supporters who may have fewer opportunities to attend games.
- Social media posts often highlight fan frustration with perceived tanking or lack of effort, suggesting a backlash if such a strategy became evident.
1. To the Sport’s Integrity:
- Deliberately losing violates the NBA’s competitive ethos and could lead to sanctions. The league has cracked down on tanking (e.g., fining teams for resting stars in key games) and would likely view intentional playoff losses as a serious breach.
- It disadvantages opponents who play to win, skewing the competitive balance. For example, a team like the Bucks, fighting for a championship, could be unfairly extended in a series, draining their energy for later rounds.
1. To Smaller Teams Themselves:
- Losing on purpose risks long-term consequences, like damaging team morale, coaching credibility, or player development. Young stars like Tyrese Haliburton thrive on winning, and a culture of strategic losing could alienate talent. But one game won’t make a difference, will it?
- The financial gain from one extra game ($2M–$2.5M net) is significant but pales compared to the potential revenue from advancing further in the playoffs or building a winning brand that attracts sponsors and fans. Truth is though that it won’t make a massive difference to rest days and who knows about the next playoff round anyway? Things are tough!
1. Systemic Fairness:
- The NBA’s structure already disadvantages smaller-market teams due to revenue disparities. Forcing them to consider unethical strategies like losing on purpose highlights a deeper inequity. However, this doesn’t justify undermining competition; it points to a need for structural fixes (e.g., enhanced revenue sharing).
- The league’s salary cap and luxury tax aim to level the playing field, but big-market teams still dominate financially. Smaller teams shouldn’t have to resort to gaming the system to survive.
Alternatives to Strategic Losing
- Maximizing Home Game Revenue: Teams can boost per-game revenue through dynamic ticket pricing, premium seating, or enhanced fan experiences (e.g., concerts, giveaways). The Pacers’ strong fan engagement, as noted in Ticketmaster reviews, suggests they could capitalize on this without compromising integrity.
- Advancing in Playoffs: Winning series generates more home games (e.g., a deep playoff run could yield 4–6 home games) and builds long-term fan loyalty and sponsorships, far outweighing the short-term gain of an extra game.
- League Reforms: The NBA could address inequities by increasing revenue sharing, subsidizing smaller markets, or adjusting playoff gate receipt splits to give home teams a larger share (currently ~60–70% after league taxes).
Is it fair? Hell no!

It’s unfair for smaller-market NBA teams like the Pacers to feel pressured to lose on purpose for extra home game revenue, as it undermines fans, competition, and the sport’s integrity. The temptation stems from real financial disparities, but the short-term gain ($2.9M–$3.5M per game) doesn’t justify the ethical and long-term costs. Instead, teams should focus on maximising revenue through fan engagement and winning, while the NBA could address inequities through structural reforms. Strategic losing is a losing proposition in every sense. So the Pacers can’t look like they lost the game on purpose but… they will give it away. After all it is very likely they don’t go much further in the playoffs anyway. So grab the money while you can.
April 25, 2025
Why Giannis Antetokounmpo Struggles Against the Indiana Pacers
Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Milwaukee Bucks’ two-time MVP is a match up nightmare for most teams. His blend of size, speed, and skill allows him to bulldoze through defences, finish at the rim with authority, and rack up points, rebounds, and assists at an elite level. However, against the Indiana Pacers, Giannis has occasionally faced challenges that limit his usual dominance. While he’s had monster games against them—most notably a franchise-record 64-point outburst in 2023—the Pacers have developed strategies that exploit specific weaknesses in his game and the Bucks’ overall approach.

The Pacers’ Defensive Blueprint: Crowding the Paint

The cornerstone of Indiana’s success against Giannis lies in their ability to neutralise his greatest strength: his paint dominance. Giannis thrives on driving to the basket, where he uses his 6’11” frame and 7’3” wingspan to overpower defenders and finish through contact. According to NBA.com stats, Giannis led the league in points in the paint during the 2024-25 season, averaging around 20 points per game in the restricted area alone. It is his go to weapon, in fact as we have analysed in depth, Giannis forgets the mid range under pressure. However, the Pacers have consistently disrupted this formula by crowding the paint and forcing him into less comfortable situations.

In a March 2025 match up, for example, Giannis scored just 19 points on 8-of-15 shooting, well below his season average of 32.7 points per game. The Pacers employed a strategy of sending double-teams early in possessions, particularly when Giannis initiated his drives from the top of the key. By collapsing multiple defenders into the paint, Indiana limited his ability to get clean looks at the rim. This approach often forced Giannis to kick the ball out to teammates, testing the Bucks’ perimeter shooting—a known inconsistency for Milwaukee, especially in high-pressure games. The Pacers’ defenders, including Myles Turner and Pascal Siakam, are mobile enough to rotate quickly, ensuring that open shooters are contested even after Giannis passes out of doubles.

This tactic isn’t just about physicality; it’s about timing. Indiana anticipates Giannis’ first step, often sagging off less threatening shooters like Brook Lopez to clog driving lanes. In the same March game, Giannis attempted only three free throws, a stark contrast to his season average of 10.5 attempts per game. The Pacers’ disciplined defense avoided fouling, keeping Giannis off the line where he typically racks up easy points despite his 68% free-throw shooting. By limiting his rim attacks and free-throw opportunities, Indiana effectively capped his scoring output. And don’t forget that Giannis’ free throw percentage is horrible. And it gets worse under pressure. Always.

Exploiting Giannis’ Limited Jump Shot

Another key factor in Giannis’ struggles is his lack of a reliable outside shot, which the Pacers exploit mercilessly. Giannis he remains a non-threat from beyond the arc, attempting fewer than one 3-pointer per game and shooting at a percentage which may be the worse single season in the history of the NBA for any player shooting this many 3s. Indiana takes advantage of this by daring him to shoot from distance, sagging off him when he’s at the perimeter to pack the paint or help on other Bucks players.

In their 2024-25 regular-season meetings, the Pacers frequently assigned versatile defenders like Siakam or Aaron Nesmith to guard Giannis one-on-one at the top of the key, giving him space to shoot while staying ready to contest his drives. This approach puts Giannis in a bind: he either takes a low-percentage jumper or hesitates, allowing Indiana’s defense to reset. In a December 2024 game, Giannis went 0-for-2 from mid-range and didn’t attempt a single 3-pointer, as Indiana’s defenders baited him into less efficient shots. This strategy not only reduces his scoring efficiency but also slows down Milwaukee’s offense, which relies heavily on Giannis’ ability to collapse defenses and create open looks for others.

The lack of a jump shot also affects Giannis in crunch time. In close games against Indiana, such as their 115-114 thriller in March 2025, the Pacers tightened their defense in the final minutes, forcing Giannis to operate in traffic. Without the confidence to pull up from 15 feet or beyond, he struggled to create separation, leading to contested shots or turnovers. His seven assists in that game were impressive, but the Bucks’ 4-of-15 shooting from deep underscored their reliance on Giannis to generate offense when perimeter shots aren’t falling.

Indiana’s Pace and Transition Game

The Pacers’ up-tempo style is another hurdle for Giannis and the Bucks. Indiana ranked among the top five teams in pace during the 2024-25 season, pushing the ball at every opportunity to create transition scoring chances. This approach exploits Milwaukee’s occasionally sluggish transition defense, which Giannis, despite his athleticism, can’t always single-handedly fix.

In their 2024 playoff series, the Pacers averaged 104.6 possessions per game against Milwaukee, compared to the Bucks’ season average of 98.2. Indiana’s guards, led by Tyrese Haliburton, thrive in the open court, where they can attack before Giannis can anchor the defense in the paint. Haliburton’s ability to pull up for 3s or lob to rim-runners like Turner or Isaiah Jackson forces Giannis to cover more ground than he’s comfortable with. In Game 4 of that series, Indiana scored 22 fast-break points, with Giannis caught out of position on several plays due to the Pacers’ relentless speed.

Offensively, the fast pace can wear Giannis down over the course of a game. While he’s one of the league’s best-conditioned athletes, Indiana’s constant pressure forces him to expend energy on both ends—chasing shooters in transition and battling for position in the half-court. In a January 2025 loss, Giannis played 38 minutes, scoring 28 points but committing four turnovers, three of which came in the second half as fatigue set in. The Pacers’ ability to dictate tempo limits Giannis’ ability to control the game’s rhythm, which is critical for a player who thrives in methodical, physical matchups.

Matchup Problems: Turner and Siakam

The Pacers’ frontcourt duo of Myles Turner and Pascal Siakam presents unique challenges for Giannis. Turner, one of the NBA’s premier rim protectors, averages 2.1 blocks per game and has the mobility to step out and contest Giannis on the perimeter when needed. In their 2024-25 encounters, Turner’s ability to stay in front of Giannis without fouling disrupted Milwaukee’s offensive flow. In the March 2025 game mentioned earlier, Turner blocked two of Giannis’ shots and altered several others, forcing him into tougher angles at the rim.

Siakam, meanwhile, brings versatility that Giannis struggles to counter. At 6’9” with a quick first step, Siakam can guard Giannis one-on-one, switch onto guards, or exploit mismatches on offense. In the 2024 playoffs, Siakam averaged 22.3 points per game against Milwaukee, often pulling Giannis away from the basket with his mid-range game and playmaking. When Giannis sags off to protect the paint, Siakam hits pull-up jumpers; when Giannis closes out, Siakam blows by for layups or kick-outs. This dynamic forces Giannis to make defensive decisions he’s less comfortable with, as he’s most effective when anchoring the paint rather than chasing wings.

The combination of Turner’s rim protection and Siakam’s two-way play creates a balanced attack that Milwaukee struggles to match. Even when Giannis posts big numbers—like his 33.5 points per game in two matchups against Indiana this season—the Pacers’ ability to counter with efficient scoring from their frontcourt limits his overall impact.

Psychological and Situational Factors

Beyond tactics and matchups, there’s a psychological edge to Indiana’s success against Giannis. The Pacers have gotten under Milwaukee’s skin in recent years, with heated moments like the 2023 game-ball dispute after Giannis’ 64-point performance. These incidents suggest a level of animosity that can disrupt Giannis’ focus. In the 2024 playoffs, technical fouls and scuffles between the teams created a chippy atmosphere, which seemed to affect Milwaukee’s composure more than Indiana’s. Giannis, who plays with intense emotion, can sometimes get caught up in these battles, leading to uncharacteristic mistakes like his late-game foul on Haliburton in the March 2025 loss.

Injuries have also played a role. Giannis missed significant time in the 2024 playoff series due to a calf strain, and while he returned to full health for most of 2024-25, nagging issues like a shoulder injury in April 2025 occasionally limited his explosiveness. In a December 2024 game, he was listed as questionable with an illness and played only 32 minutes, scoring 24 points on subpar efficiency. The Pacers capitalize on any dip in Giannis’ physicality, as their high-energy style thrives against teams that aren’t at 100%.

Historical Context and Giannis’ Successes

It’s worth noting that Giannis hasn’t always struggled against Indiana. Over the last two seasons, he’s averaged 36.8 points, 12.7 rebounds, and 6.3 assists per game against them, per StatMuse, with a 66.2% field-goal percentage. His 64-point game in 2023 and a 41-point, 12-rebound performance earlier that season highlight his ability to dominate when the Pacers’ defense falters. However, these outbursts often come in games where Milwaukee’s shooters are hitting, forcing Indiana to spread their defense thin and open driving lanes for Giannis.

The Pacers’ success lies in their consistency at executing their anti-Giannis game plan, particularly in playoff settings. In the 2024 first-round series, Indiana won 4-2, with Giannis missing the first two games and struggling to find rhythm upon his return. Even in regular-season losses, the Pacers keep games close, as evidenced by their 4-1 record against Milwaukee in 2023-24. This track record gives them confidence that they can contain Giannis, even if they can’t stop him entirely.

How Giannis Can Overcome These Struggles

For Giannis to reclaim his dominance against Indiana, a few adjustments could make a difference:
1. Develop a Pull-Up Game: Adding a consistent mid-range jumper would force the Pacers to guard him honestly, opening up the paint for his drives. He’s shown flashes of this, but greater confidence in his shot could change the dynamic. This is unlikely to happen however now.
2. Trust Teammates Early: Giannis often tries to take over when he’s frustrated, but passing out of double-teams quickly and letting players like Lillard or Middleton attack can punish Indiana’s aggressive rotations. He kills ball flow and his team’s chances like this though.
3. Improve Transition Defense: By setting the tone defensively, Giannis can slow Indiana’s pace and keep the game in the half-court, where he’s most comfortable.
4. Stay Composed: Avoiding emotional flare-ups will help Giannis maintain focus, especially in tight games where Indiana thrives on chaos. Giannis has always lacked in basketball IQ but he should at least know when to let Dame take over.
On the Bucks’ end, better spacing and shooting from role players would force Indiana to rethink their pack-the-paint strategy. If Lopez or Middleton can knock down 3s consistently, the Pacers may have to abandon their doubling tactics, giving Giannis more room to operate.

So how will it go this year in the playoffs?

Giannis Antetokounmpo’s struggles against the Indiana Pacers stem from a combination of smart defensive schemes, matchup challenges, and situational factors. The Pacers’ ability to crowd the paint, exploit his lack of a jump shot, and push the pace creates problems that even a player of Giannis’ caliber can’t always solve. Players like Turner and Siakam amplify these issues with their defensive versatility, while Indiana’s psychological edge and fast-paced style keep Milwaukee off balance. Yet, Giannis’ track record shows he’s capable of overcoming these hurdles with the right adjustments and support from his team.

For now, Indiana remains one of the few teams that can slow the Greek Freak, making their match ups must-watch battles in the Eastern Conference.

Sources:
- NBA.com for advanced stats and game logs.
- StatMuse for Giannis’ historical performance against the Pacers.
- Game reports from The Athletic, ESPN, and Sports Illustrated for specific matchup details.
Note: All stats and game references are accurate as of April 11, 2025, based on the 2024-25 NBA season and prior years.
April 12, 2025
The Myth of Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Mid-Range Shot part 4 : A Closer Look

Over the years, analysts and fans alike have speculated about the evolution of his game, with one narrative gaining traction: Giannis has developed a reliable mid-range shot. This claim, however, is more myth than reality. While Giannis has shown flashes of mid-range competence in certain situations, the idea that he has a consistent, game-changing mid-range jumper—especially in tougher matchups and high-stakes games—doesn’t hold up under scrutiny.

The Statistical Mirage, especially in games they lose

To understand the myth, we first need to look at the numbers. Giannis has indeed increased his mid-range attempts over the years. According to NBA.com stats, in the 2020-21 season (his first MVP year with notable mid-range chatter), he took 2.1 mid-range shots per game, hitting them at a 41.8% clip. Fast forward to the 2023-24 season, and those numbers crept up slightly—2.5 attempts per game at a 43.1% success rate. On the surface, this looks like progress. For a player who once avoided the mid-range entirely, any improvement seems noteworthy.

However, these stats are misleading without context. Giannis mid-range volume remains a tiny fraction of his overall shot diet. Compare that to true mid-range maestros like Kevin Durant (over 30% of his shots from mid-range in 2023-24) or Chris Paul (a career mid-range savant), and it’s clear Giannis isn’t relying on this shot as a weapon. It just doesn’t add up to points that matter. More importantly, his efficiency drops significantly when facing elite defenses. In the 2023 playoffs, for instance, his mid-range shooting

plummeted to 36.4% against the Miami Heat, a team that clogged the paint and dared him to shoot. The numbers suggest competence in low-pressure scenarios—like regular-season games against weaker teams—but falter when the stakes rise. That pie chart on the right is his shots in losses. He turns to almost 80% dunking at the rim and forgets other distances.

Using just official stats from NBA.com here is this season Giannis in the games the Bucks lost. 36.4% of his mid range shots go in. Last season? 40.3% went in! So he isn’t improving at all in fact! If we filter for the harder matchups it gets even worse. He is only slightly better at 10-14ft, all other distances in the mid range he is shooting worse than last season. Alley oops, hook shots, finger rolls, layups, even dunk percentages are worse this season.

That is this season but look how much better he was last season!

The Eye Test: Form and Function

Beyond the stats, Giannis’ mid-range shot fails the eye test in tougher match ups. His jumper lacks the fluidity and consistency of players who thrive in that range. His shooting form—marked by a slow release, a slight hitch, and an awkward follow-through—telegraphs his intentions, giving defenders time to contest or recover. Against teams with length and discipline Giannis rarely pulls up confidently from 15 feet. Instead, he reverts to his bread and butter: bulldozing to the rim or kicking out to shooters.

That table above shows clearly how much worse Giannis is this season in most types of shots. If you don’t believe me go to the source, the official stats and see for yourself. He even misses more dunks this year!

Watch any high-stakes game, and the pattern emerges. In the 2021 Finals against the Phoenix Suns, Giannis attempted just 12 mid-range shots across six games, making five (41.7%). Most of his damage came at the rim (63.1% shooting on 84 attempts) or at the free-throw line (where he took a whopping 71 attempts). The mid-range was an afterthought, not a game-changer. Similarly, in the 2023 first-round loss to Miami, his mid-range attempts were sporadic and ineffective, often forced late in the shot clock rather than a deliberate part of Milwaukee’s strategy. Elite defenses know this and exploit it, sagging off him to protect the paint and living with the occasional jumper. Better still they keep him away from his favourite spots and he takes the bait, going to his bad side of the paint and missing.

Why It Doesn’t Matter in Big Games

The myth of Giannis’ mid-range development persists because it’s an appealing narrative. For a player with his physical gifts, adding a jumper would theoretically make him unstoppable. But in reality, it hasn’t—and doesn’t—materially affect games that matter.

1. Defensive Game Plans Don’t Change: Teams like Toronto (2019 ECF) and Miami (2020 and 2023 playoffs) built walls in the paint and begged Giannis to shoot from outside. His mid-range “improvement” hasn’t forced them to adjust. They still prioritize stopping his drives, and he hasn’t punished them enough to rethink that approach.

2. Playoff Pressure Magnifies Weaknesses: In the regular season, Giannis can feast on weaker teams with poor rim protection, occasionally mixing in a mid-range jumper to keep them honest. But in the playoffs, against top-tier coaching and personnel, his lack of confidence and consistency from that range becomes glaring. He hesitates, overthinks, or abandons the shot entirely.

3. Giannis is a liability in clutch. I outlined 5 very likely scenarios where Giannis should simply not be on the floor. He is shooting free throws worse than ever in his career. And 3points at a percentage that could be the worse for a season in NBA history. Yet he hasn’t got the basketball IQ to know to avoid them!

The Narrative vs. Reality

The idea that Giannis has “developed” a mid-range shot stems from a mix of selective highlights and wishful thinking. A pull-up jumper against the Charlotte Hornets in January gets replayed on SportsCenter, and suddenly he’s “expanding his game.” But those moments are outliers, not the norm. Analysts point to his work with shooting coaches or off season training clips, but the results don’t translate when it counts. The Bucks’ 2021 title run wasn’t fueled by mid-range mastery it was about Khris Middleton’s clutch shooting, Brook spreading the floor , a suffocating defence led by Jrue and a team that was one of the best from 3 that season.

Contrast Giannis with players like Nikola Jokić or Jayson Tatum, who seamlessly weave mid-range shots into their playoff arsenals. Jokić’s floater and fadeaway are lethal against any defence; Tatum’s pull-up keeps opponents guessing. Giannis lacks that dimension. And in tougher match ups against teams that can match his physicality or scheme him out of the paint it shows.

A Myth That Misses the Point

Giannis Antetokounmpo doesn’t have a reliable mid-range shot, and the claim that he’s developed one is a myth propped up by small sample sizes and optimistic storytelling. In games that matter most—playoff battles against elite foes—his mid-range game is non-existent or inconsequential. Defenses don’t respect it, and he doesn’t lean on it. If anything he is getting worse from mid range when it counts. So just stop regurgitating the myth, it isn’t helping Giannis at all.

April 5, 2025
How Miami Heat Players have defended Giannis Antetokounmpo: Matchups and Strategies

The Miami Heat have historically had success slowing him down, leveraging a mix of versatile defenders and smart team schemes. Especially when it really counts, the Heat have his number time and time again.

Bam Adebayo: The Anchor of Versatility

Defensive Impact:
Bam Adebayo, Miami’s All-Star center, is often the linchpin of the Heat’s strategy against Giannis. At 6’9” and 255 pounds, Adebayo doesn’t quite match Giannis’ height, but his agility, strength, and defensive IQ make him a formidable match up. One of Giannis’ primary weaknesses is his lack of a consistent outside jump shot—historically, he’s hovered around 30% from three-point range and struggles with mid-range pull-ups. Adebayo exploits this by sagging off Giannis when he’s on the perimeter, daring him to shoot while clogging the paint to deter drives. This season match has been said about Giannis “improving” his mid range but it is a completely bogus claim. In only two mid range distances has he improved but that is only in easy games.

Adebayo’s lateral quickness allows him to stay in front of Giannis on drives, and his strong lower body helps him absorb contact without giving up easy baskets. Miami often employs a “wall” strategy, where Adebayo is the centrepiece, forming a physical barrier to prevent Giannis from getting a straight line to the rim. This forces Giannis into taking contested shots or passing out to teammates, where his play making isn’t always precise under pressure (evidenced by his occasional turnover spikes against Miami).

Offensive Exploitation:
On the flip side, Adebayo takes advantage of Giannis’ defensive tendencies. Giannis is vulnerable to quick decision-makers like Adebayo, who excels as a short-roll play maker in pick-and-roll sets. By pulling Giannis away from the rim, Adebayo either finishes with floaters or dishes to cutters and shooters, exploiting Giannis’ occasional over commitment to protecting the paint.

Jimmy Butler: The Gritty Perimeter Pest

Defensive Impact:
Jimmy Butler, Miami’s heart-and-soul leader, was never the primary defender on Giannis due to size mismatches (Butler is 6’7”), but he was often switched onto him in key moments. Butler thrives by exploiting Giannis’ discomfort in tight spaces. While Giannis dominates in transition and open-floor situations, his ball-handling can get sloppy when pressured in the half-court. Butler’s physicality and active hands force Giannis into hesitation dribbles or awkward passes, occasionally leading to turnovers or forced shots.

Giannis’ lack of a refined post game is another weakness Butler targets. When Giannis tries to back him down, Butler uses his strength and low center of gravity to hold his ground, often inviting a double-team that clogs Giannis’ driving lanes further. Butler’s tenacity also wears on Giannis mentally, as he’s relentless in denying easy positioning.

Offensive Exploitation:
Offensively, Butler attacks Giannis’ aggressive defensive style. Giannis often gambles for steals or blocks, which Butler counters with pump fakes and crafty footwork to draw fouls—Giannis has been prone to foul trouble against Miami’s physical play. Butler’s mid-range game also pulls Giannis out of his comfort zone, as he’s less effective guarding on the perimeter compared to the paint.

Jae Crowder: The Physical Enforcer (Former Heat Player)

Defensive Impact:
Though Jae Crowder is no longer with the Heat as of 2025, his tenure with the team (notably during the 2020 playoffs) showcased how he could neutralize Giannis. At 6’6” and 235 pounds, Crowder brought a bulldog-like physicality that disrupted Giannis’ rhythm. Crowder exploited Giannis’ reliance on momentum by bodying him early in possessions, preventing him from building a head of steam. This forced Giannis into settling for jumpers or passing out of double-teams, where his decision-making under pressure sometimes faltered.

Crowder’s willingness to bang in the post also exposed Giannis’ occasional struggles with finishing through contact against smaller, stockier defenders who don’t give up ground easily. By staying low and using his frame, Crowder turned Giannis’ drives into a wrestling match rather than a track meet.

Offensive Exploitation:
On offense, Crowder stretched Giannis out with his three-point shooting (career 34-35% from deep). Giannis prefers to sag off non-elite shooters, but Crowder’s ability to knock down open looks forced Giannis to respect his range, opening driving lanes for teammates. This dynamic diluted Giannis’ rim protection, a key part of his defensive identity.

Andre Iguodala: The High-IQ Veteran (Former Heat Player)

Defensive Impact:
Andre Iguodala, another ex-Heat contributor from the 2020 bubble run, brought a cerebral approach to defending Giannis. At 6’6” with a long wingspan, Iguodala relied on anticipation rather than raw athleticism. He exploited Giannis’ predictability in certain situations—such as his tendency to euro-step or spin into traffic—by jumping passing lanes or forcing him baseline into help defense. Giannis’ turnover rate often ticked up against Iguodala’s savvy positioning.

Iguodala also capitalized on Giannis’ discomfort with shooting over smaller defenders who give him space. By sagging off and baiting jumpers, Iguodala turned Giannis into a less efficient version of himself, especially in clutch moments.

Offensive Exploitation:
Offensively, Iguodala didn’t attack Giannis directly often, but his playmaking and cutting forced Giannis to stay honest. Giannis’ aggressive help defense left gaps that Iguodala exploited with backdoor cuts or quick passes, keeping Milwaukee’s defense scrambling.

P.J. Tucker: The Bulldog (Former Heat Player)

Defensive Impact:
P.J. Tucker, who joined the Heat in 2021, was a Giannis-stopper during his Miami stint. At 6’5” and 245 pounds, Tucker’s low center of gravity and relentless physicality made him a brick wall. He targeted Giannis’ need for space to operate, chesting him up and denying easy entry into the paint. Tucker’s ability to take “chest bumps” without budging forced Giannis into tougher shots or kick-outs, reducing his efficiency (e.g., dropping his effective field-goal percentage significantly against Miami).

Tucker also exploited Giannis’ limited perimeter game by giving him room to shoot, knowing the odds favored a miss or a hesitant pass. His one-on-one defense often eliminated the need for doubles, keeping Miami’s scheme intact.

Offensive Exploitation:
On offense, Tucker’s corner three-point shooting (career 37% from deep) pulled Giannis away from the rim, weakening Milwaukee’s interior defense. Tucker’s knack for hitting timely shots punished Giannis for sagging off, creating a dilemma for the Bucks’ defensive alignment.

Current Heat Options: Haywood Highsmith and Nikola Jović

Haywood Highsmith (Defensive Impact):
As of 2025, Highsmith (6’7”, 220 pounds) has emerged as a versatile wing defender. His length and hustle allow him to contest Giannis’ drives and recover quickly on closeouts. Highsmith exploits Giannis’ tendency to over-dribble in traffic by swiping at the ball, occasionally forcing turnovers or rushed shots.

Offensive Exploitation:
Highsmith’s developing three-point shot (around 38% in recent seasons) forces Giannis to guard him tighter, opening up the floor for Miami’s offense.

Nikola Jović (Defensive Impact):
Jović, a 6’10” forward, offers size to match Giannis. While still raw, his length disrupts Giannis’ driving angles, and his mobility helps him stay in front. Jović targets Giannis’ lack of a go-to mid-range move, encouraging him to settle for less efficient shots.

Offensive Exploitation:
Jović’s outside shooting and passing stretch Giannis thin, pulling him out of the paint and exposing his slower foot speed on the perimeter.

Conclusion: Miami’s Collective Edge

The Miami Heat’s success against Giannis isn’t about one player—it’s a team effort rooted in versatility, physicality, and exploiting his key weaknesses: a shaky jumper, occasional ball-handling sloppiness, and over-reliance on paint scoring. Adebayo anchors the interior, Butler and Highsmith harass on the perimeter, and past contributors like Crowder, Iguodala, and Tucker have shown how to grind Giannis down. Offensively, these players turn Giannis’ aggression against him, drawing fouls, hitting jumpers, or creating space. For tonight Giannis is lucky as they are almost all out with injuries!

April 5, 2025
Bucks vs. Knicks History: A Rivalry Renewed and Giannis’ Struggles Against New York
The Milwaukee Bucks and New York Knicks have a storied history in the NBA, one that spans decades and features memorable moments, shifting fortunes, and, more recently, a spotlight on Giannis Antetokounmpo’s challenges when facing the Knicks. As two Eastern Conference teams with passionate fanbases, their matchups have often carried weight, especially in recent years as both franchises have aimed to reassert themselves among the league’s elite.

A Brief History of Bucks vs. Knicks

The Bucks and Knicks first crossed paths in the late 1960s when Milwaukee joined the NBA as an expansion team in 1968. Early on, the Knicks held the upper hand, buoyed by their championship teams of the early 1970s, led by legends like Walt Frazier and Willis Reed. The Bucks, however, quickly found their footing with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Oscar Robertson, claiming their first title in 1971. During this era, the teams were in different conferences—Milwaukee in the West and New York in the East—limiting their encounters to regular-season clashes and the occasional playoff meeting.

As the years progressed, the rivalry ebbed and flowed. The Bucks dominated in the 1980s with stars like Sidney Moncrief, while the Knicks resurgence in the 1990s under Patrick Ewing brought physical, defensive battles to the forefront. The two teams met in the playoffs several times, including a notable 1984 Eastern Conference Semifinals series where the Bucks swept the Knicks 4-0. However, for much of the 2000s and early 2010s, both franchises struggled, diminishing the intensity of their matchups.

The arrival of Giannis Antetokounmpo in Milwaukee in 2013 and the Knicks’ gradual rebuild in the late 2010s set the stage for a renewed rivalry. Since the Bucks moved to the Eastern Conference’s Central Division and solidified themselves as contenders, their games against the Knicks have taken on new significance, especially as New York has climbed back into relevance with players like Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns.

Giannis vs. the Knicks: A Tough Matchup

Giannis Antetokounmpo’s blend of size, speed, and skill makes him a nightmare for most opponents—but the Knicks have proven to be a particularly thorny challenge. The Bucks’ struggles against New York this season (and in recent years) have highlighted specific problems Giannis faces when taking on the Knicks.
1. Physicality and Defensive Pressure
  The Knicks, under coach Tom Thibodeau, are known for their gritty, physical style of play. This approach has consistently disrupted Giannis’ rhythm. New York’s defenders—whether it’s OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, or even Towns in certain match ups—throw multiple bodies at Giannis, forcing him into tough shots or turnovers. In a January 12, 2025, blowout loss (140-106), Giannis noted the Bucks’ lack of collective creation, saying, “We didn’t create for one another.” The Knicks’ swarming defence often isolates him, limiting his ability to facilitate and forcing him to carry the offensive load alone.
2. Struggles Against Versatile Bigs
  Karl-Anthony Towns, acquired by the Knicks in 2024, has been a matchup nightmare for Giannis. Towns’ ability to stretch the floor with his three-point shooting pulls Bucks centre Brook Lopez out of the paint, leaving Giannis to guard him on the perimeter or switch onto quicker players. In the November 8, 2024, game (a 116-94 Knicks win), Towns torched Milwaukee for 32 points, exploiting Lopez’s slower foot speed and Giannis’ reluctance to start games guarding him due to the workload. Bucks coach Doc Rivers later admitted it was a “mistake” not to put Giannis on Towns from the tip, but even when adjusted, Giannis couldn’t fully neutralize Towns’ versatility.
3. Free-Throw Woes and Efficiency Dips
  Giannis’ free-throw shooting has long been a point of criticism, and it’s magnified against the Knicks. New York’s physical defense sends him to the line frequently, but he’s struggled to capitalize. In the January 2025 loss, he shot just 47.6% from the field—his worst mark of the season—and his free-throw struggles (often hovering below 60% in these games) have prevented him from maximizing his scoring output. This inefficiency stands out when the Bucks need him most against a Knicks team that capitalizes on every mistake.
4. Team Struggles Against Elite Competition
  While this isn’t solely a Giannis problem, his frustration with the Bucks’ 0-8 record against the East’s top three teams (Cavs, Celtics, Knicks) as of January 2025 underscores a broader issue. After the 140-106 defeat, he bluntly said, “We’ve gotta get our stuff together… We played horrible against them.” The Knicks’ balanced attack—led by Brunson’s 44 points in that game—exposes Milwaukee’s lack of depth and defensive cohesion, putting extra pressure on Giannis to overperform. When he can’t, the Bucks crumble, as seen in their inability to slow New York’s runs.
5. Mental and Competitive Edge
  Giannis has been vocal about effort, famously calling out the Bucks’ lack of competitiveness after the November 2024 loss: “We didn’t compete at all.” The Knicks, with their Madison Square Garden energy and Thibodeau’s relentless mentality, seem to get under his skin. Unlike other teams where Giannis can dominate through sheer will, New York’s resilience forces him into a mental battle he hasn’t consistently won.
Looking Ahead

As of March 28, 2025, the Bucks sit at 40-31, a far cry from their dominant 60-win season in 2018-19, while the Knicks are thriving at 25-14. Giannis remains a force, averaging 31.7 points and 11.9 rebounds per game, but his 2-7 record against New York this season (including regular season and potential playoff matchups) tells a story of frustration. The Bucks’ next chance to face the Knicks comes on Friday, March 28, and with Damian Lillard sidelined indefinitely due to a calf injury, Giannis will need to overcome these challenges without his co-star.

Historically, the Bucks and Knicks have traded blows, but the current chapter favours New York. For Giannis, solving the Knicks puzzle—whether through better team execution, improved free-throw shooting, or a tactical adjustment to counter Towns—will be key to reasserting Milwaukee’s dominance in this rivalry. Until then, the “Greek Freak” faces an uphill battle against a Knicks team that’s found a formula to fluster him quite easily. Sure, Giannis might still get 20 or 30 points. But if he does, the Bucks will lose. Time to share the ball and trust his team mates.

——UPDATE AFTER THE GAME ——-

Yes, I was right, Giannis stat padding and no mid range:

And he hogged the ball as usual

And he played no defence as usual, pretty clear Rollins was the player of the game:

Tyler Kolek is not intimidated by Giannis 💪 pic.twitter.com/09DtlXJvnf
— Knicks Fan TV 🏀🎥📺🏁 (@KnicksFanTv) March 29, 2025
March 28, 2025
Vando vs Giannis. It doesn’t end well…

I did a post about various players that can shut down Giannis on their own. No “wall” needed. Here is one I forgot. If you’ve watched the Los Angeles Lakers take on the Milwaukee Bucks in recent years, you’ve probably noticed something: Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Greek Freak, the two-time MVP, doesn’t always look quite as unstoppable when Jarred Vanderbilt is on the floor. Sure, Giannis still gets some but there’s a noticeable grind to his game, a little extra sweat on his brow. So, what’s the deal? Why does Vanderbilt, a gritty role player, seem to have the formula for slowing down Giannis?

The Physical Blueprint

At 6’8” with a 7’1” wingspan and an 8’10” standing reach, Jarred Vanderbilt isn’t your average forward. He’s built like a Swiss Army knife—long enough to bother bigs, quick enough to hang with guards, and strong enough to not get shoved aside by a freight train like Giannis. The Bucks star thrives on bulldozing smaller defenders or outrunning lumbering centres, but Vanderbilt’s combo of size and agility throws a wrench into that plan. He can slide his feet to cut off Giannis’s Eurostep drives and extend those lanky arms to contest shots without racking up fouls (well, most of the time).

Defense That Doesn’t Quit

Vanderbilt’s game isn’t about flashy stats—it’s about effort. The dude plays like he’s got an extra battery pack strapped to his back. He’s diving for loose balls, scrapping for rebounds (6.3 per game career average), and sticking to Giannis like a shadow. That relentless energy is a nightmare for a player like Giannis, who feasts in transition (7.6 fast-break points per game this season). Vanderbilt’s hustle forces Milwaukee into the half-court, where the Lakers can clog the paint and turn Giannis into a passer—or, better yet, a jump-shooter (career 28.6% from three, folks).

Steals and Smarts

Don’t sleep on Vanderbilt’s hands. He’s averaging 1.2 steals per game for his career, and those quick paws have snagged plenty of Giannis’s dribbles. Let’s face it Giannis is not a ball handler. Yet this season he thinks it a good idea to bring the ball down. Whether it’s a sneaky strip on a drive or a deflection in the post, Vanderbilt’s defensive IQ shines through. He knows Giannis wants to get downhill, so he’ll shade him toward help or bait him into a turnover (Giannis averages 3.0 against LA). Pair that with his ability to switch across positions—thanks to years honing his versatility—and you’ve got a defender who can disrupt Milwaukee’s entire offence, not just its superstar.

The Lakers’ Secret Sauce

Vanderbilt doesn’t do this alone. When he’s guarding Giannis, Anthony Davis used to be usually lurking nearby, ready to swat shots (2.1 blocks per game this season). The Lakers’ “wall” strategy—packing the paint and daring Giannis to shoot from outside—isn’t unique, but Vanderbilt makes it sing. He’s the guy out front, taking the hits and funnelling Giannis into AD’s domain. It’s like a buddy-cop movie: Vanderbilt’s the scrappy street fighter, Davis is the cool-headed enforcer, and Giannis is the bad guy who still gets away sometimes. Without Anthony Davis, Hayes will have to play tonight and he is clearly not as able in defence.

Proof in the Matchups

Check the tape. Back on March 8, 2024, the Lakers edged out a 123-122 thriller, and Giannis went 12-for-21 (57.1%) for 34 points—solid, but below his usual efficiency—with 5 turnovers. Vanderbilt was all over him for 20 minutes. Or take February 1, 2023: Giannis dropped 38 on 15-of-29 shooting (51.7%), but Vanderbilt’s 26 minutes included 4 steals and a whole lot of frustration for the Bucks. Even in losses, like this month’s 124-109 Bucks win, Vanderbilt’s 14 minutes kept Giannis working harder than he’d like.

Not Perfect, But Perfectly Pesky

Giannis is still Giannis. He’s averaging 27.9 points against the Lakers historically, and he’ll have his monster nights no matter who’s guarding him. Vanderbilt’s offence (a modest 6.0 PPG career average) also lets Giannis sag off and roam defensively. But that’s not the point. Vanderbilt’s job isn’t to erase Giannis—it’s to make him mortal, to turn a 40-point cakewalk into a 30-point grind. And when he’s healthy and locked in, he does just that. Add to that his turnovers (worse in the NBA this season in relation to assists) and it’s not looking good.

Jarred Vanderbilt might not get the headlines, but he’s the kind of player coaches dream about. Against Giannis Antetokounmpo, his length, hustle, and smarts combine to form a defensive puzzle that even the Greek Freak struggles to solve. When LA and Milwaukee square off, keep an eye on No. 8. You’ll see why Giannis might secretly dread those matchups.

What do you think—does Vanderbilt deserve more lo

March 20, 2025
Giannis vs. the Lakers: A Greek Tragedy in Purple and Gold

When it comes to NBA dominance, Giannis Antetokounmpo is usually the guy you’d bet on to steamroll any team in his path. The Milwaukee Bucks’ two-time MVP has made a career out of dunking on defences, racking up triple-doubles, and leaving opponents scrambling for answers. But there’s one team that seems to have the Greek Freak’s number—or at least makes him look mortal: the Los Angeles Lakers. Time and again, Giannis’ performances against the Purple and Gold have been, dare I say it, terrible.

The Lakers’ Defensive Blueprint
First off, credit where it’s due: the Lakers have historically thrown some of the league’s best big-man stoppers at Giannis. Whether it’s Anthony Davis sliding over with his pterodactyl wingspan or the ghosts of past Lakers bigs like Dwight Howard clogging the paint, LA seems to know how to gum up Giannis’ game. The dude thrives on getting to the rim, but against the Lakers, that runway often turns into a brick wall. You can almost hear Darvin Ham (or Frank Vogel, or now JJ Redick, depending on the era) cackling as they force Giannis into awkward mid-range jumpers—shots he takes reluctantly and bricks spectacularly in games that matter. Especially since defences easily lead him on to his “bad” side where he is well under par.

Take any random Bucks-Lakers game from the past few seasons, and you’ll see the pattern: Giannis gets swarmed, his drives get cut off, and suddenly he’s passing out to a cold-shooting Khris Middleton/Dame Lillard or a hesitant Brook Lopez. It’s not that he’s invisible—nobody can completely erase a 6’11” freight train—but the Lakers make him look inefficient, which is a cardinal sin for a guy who’s supposed to be unstoppable. Giannis is the worse in the NBA in assist to turnover ratio. Well with the Lakers he is even worse. The shot chart is from their last matchup, simply pathetic.

The LeBron Factor
Then there’s the LeBron James effect. Say what you will about aging superstars, but LeBron has a knack for getting under Giannis’ skin. Maybe it’s the psychological edge of facing a fellow all-time great, or maybe LeBron just knows how to bait him into overthinking. When these two share the floor, Giannis often seems torn between proving he’s the new king and sticking to the Bucks’ game plan. The result? Forced plays, turnovers, and a stat line that looks more “pretty good” than “Greek Freak domination.”

LeBron doesn’t even need to guard him full-time—just his presence warps the game. The Lakers can afford to double-team Giannis knowing LeBron’s basketball IQ will cover the gaps. It’s like watching a chess grandmaster toy with a checkers prodigy. Giannis’ fans may replay that one time he stopped LeBron but it was always in a game the Bucks lost and LeBron was much much better anyway.

The Numbers Don’t Lie (Probably)

Okay, I’m not diving into a spreadsheet here, but if you’ve watched these games, you know the vibe. Giannis might still put up 25 points against the Lakers, but it’s on 20 shots with a handful of turnovers and a quiet second half. Compare that to his usual 30-point, 60% shooting rampages against lesser teams, and it’s clear LA brings out his inner mortal. The Bucks often lean on him to carry them, but against the Lakers, he’s more likely to stumble than soar.

The X-Factor: LA’s Aura and Giannis inferiority complex
Maybe it’s the bright lights of LA, the Hollywood crowd, or the pressure of facing a franchise that’s been a thorn in Milwaukee’s side since the Kareem days. Giannis is human and something about that Lakers jersey seems to throw him off his rhythm. The Bucks as a team often look rattled in these matchups, and Giannis—despite his Herculean efforts—can’t lift them out of the funk. He obviously has psychological issues concerning his own lack of ability and these appear in the bigger match ups. His mid range disappears, his free throws are always worse, his decision making terrible.

Giannis Antetokounmpo against the Lakers, is consistently less than the sum of his parts. Call it a bad matchup, a mental block, or just Anthony Davis being a cheat code in the past, but the Greek Freak’s struggles in Purple and Gold territory are a blemish on his resume. Bucks fans can only hope that the next time these teams clash Giannis finally figures out how to turn the tables. Tonight is an excellent opportunity since both LeBron and all of the big guys on the Lakers roster are out of action. Giannis should be completely on his own to dominate easily. No Davis, no Hayes, no LeBron. Who’s gonna stop him? Austin Reaves? Actually many times even this has happened.

That’s how bad Giannis is against the Lakers.

—–UPDATE POST GAME—–

Unfortunately Giannis not only didn’t shine but produced this pretty terrible box score:

From the jump, Giannis didn’t look like the unstoppable force we’ve seen tear through defenses all year. Sure, he shot 47% from the field—not terrible, but a far cry from his season average. Against a Lakers frontcourt that’s been shaky without LeBron anchoring the defense, you’d expect Giannis to bully his way to the rim for 35 or 40 points with ease. Instead, he settled for jumpers too often and didn’t impose his will like the MVP candidate he is. Ten of his points came in a late third-quarter burst that padded the Bucks’ lead, but by then, the game was already trending toward a rout thanks to contributions from Brook Lopez (23 points) and Damian Lillard (22 points, 10 assists). Giannis wasn’t the engine—he was just along for the ride.

The rebounding? Twelve boards sound nice until you realize the Lakers were outmatched inside, and Luka Doncic—yes, Luka Doncic—still managed 11 rebounds despite carrying the Lakers’ offence with a Herculean 45-point effort. Giannis, at 6’11” with his freakish athleticism, should’ve owned the glass against a team missing key bigs like Jaxson Hayes and Rui Hachimura.

His shot chart is barely better than their last matchup! With nobody to stop him and he still missed more! He stayed in the game far longer than was needed in a blowout chasing the stat line. With the Lakers doubling him and daring others to beat them, he had ample opportunity to rack up assists by finding open shooters like Lillard or Lopez. Yet, there were moments where his decision-making faltered—hesitant passes, a few forced drives that led nowhere, and a lack of that killer instinct to either finish or set up a teammate. And he is heading to have the worse 3point shooting season in the history of the NBA as it continues to drop!

March 13, 2025