Tag: 34

  • The Lingering Shadows of a Late Start: Giannis

    The Lingering Shadows of a Late Start: Giannis

    Giannis Antetokounmpo, even after over a decade in the league has certain aspects of his game stubbornly underdeveloped. These weaknesses—ranging from inconsistent shooting to poor screening and defensive lapses—can be traced back to his unconventional entry into basketball. Unlike many NBA stars who honed their skills from childhood, Giannis didn’t start playing organized basketball until he was around 13 years old, first touching a basketball at that age and beginning professional play in Greece at 16. This late start meant he missed out on years of foundational training, where muscle memory for technical skills like shooting form, screen-setting technique, and quick decision-making is typically built. Instead, Giannis has relied heavily on his extraordinary physical gifts—length, speed, and power—to compensate, but these gaps persist, affecting both his individual performance and the Milwaukee Bucks’ team dynamics.

    Struggles at the Charity Stripe and Beyond: The Shooting Woes

    One of the most glaring and persistent issues in Giannis’ arsenal is his shooting, particularly from the free-throw line and long range. Despite years of practice and tweaks to his routine, his career free-throw percentage hovers at a mediocre 69.3%, dipping to 61.7% in recent seasons. This isn’t just a minor flaw; it’s a strategic vulnerability that opponents exploit, especially in playoffs, by fouling him intentionally to disrupt drives and force him to the line. Insiders have pointed out that if Giannis could convert at a higher rate—given he leads the league in free-throw attempts—he’d likely have more MVP trophies, as it would naturally boost his scoring average without additional shots.

    Beyond free throws, his overall shooting profile reveals deficiencies. He’s historically struggled with three-pointers and mid-range shots, posting some of the lowest field-goal percentages in the league in these areas during playoffs. While recent developments show improvement in mid-range efficiency (hitting 54.5% over stretches and ranking second league-wide in certain periods), his form lacks the fluidity of players who drilled jumpers from a young age. And of course he has no mid range when it matters in the playoffs or harder regular season games. This ties directly to his late start: Shooting is a skill rooted in repetition and mechanics developed early. Without that foundation, Giannis’ attempts often look mechanical or forced, relying on power rather than touch. In half-court sets, defenses sag off him, daring him to shoot, which clogs driving lanes and limits his effectiveness as a playmaker.

    The Art of the Pick: Why Giannis Can’t Set Effective Screens

    Screen-setting might seem like a basic team skill, but for Giannis, it’s a glaring weakness that hampers the Bucks’ offense. Analysts describe his screens as “ghost screens”—half-hearted efforts where he doesn’t establish a solid base, sets them too high, or angles them poorly, allowing defenders to slip through easily. With his massive 7-foot, 253-pound frame, he should be a screening powerhouse, but instead, he often prioritizes rolling to the rim for his own scoring opportunities, leading to shoddy execution. Statistically, this shows: He averages just over two screen assists per game, generating only five points, and the Bucks rank near the bottom in off-screen efficiency at 0.5 points per possession.

    This flaw is particularly damaging in pick-and-roll heavy schemes with stars like Damian Lillard, where effective screens create space for pull-ups or drives. Without them, the offense stagnates, forcing isolation plays. Again, the late start explains this: Screening requires precise footwork, body positioning, and timing—fundamentals drilled in youth leagues. Giannis, who jumped straight into high-level play without that base, treats it as an afterthought, leaning on his athleticism to dominate individually rather than synergize with teammates.

    Giannis’ screening IQ is obviously something that can’t magically appear. He doesn’t understand angles at the most fundamental level. He also doesn’t understand

    Defensive Reactions: Elite Talent with Occasional Lapses

    Giannis is a defensive monster—his length and instincts earned him DPOY honors—but he isn’t flawless. Critics note he struggles with quick reactions in certain scenarios, like chasing guards around screens or maintaining off-ball awareness. He can “fall asleep” off the ball, failing to rotate promptly or box out, which leads to easy rebounds or cuts for opponents. While his help defense is elite, perimeter switching exposes slower lateral quickness against shifty guards, and his reactions in complex schemes can lag.

    This isn’t about effort but ingrained habits. Starting basketball late meant less exposure to defensive drills that build anticipation and reaction speed. Players like Kawhi Leonard or Draymond Green, who started young, have that intuitive read-and-react ability honed over years. For Giannis, defense is more reactive to his physical tools than proactive fundamentals, making him vulnerable in playoff matchups where teams scheme to isolate these gaps.

    Passing and Decision-Making: The Half-Court Hurdles

    Giannis’ passing is another area where limitations shine through. While he averages solid assists, he’s not a “great passer,” as opponents like Alperen Sengun have exploited by collapsing the paint and forcing him into tough decisions. In half-court sets, he struggles with quick reads, often over-dribbling (sometimes for 14 seconds) or opting for isolation shots instead of hitting open teammates. This contributes to the Bucks’ low rankings in passes and assists, turning a potential juggernaut into a predictable unit.

    Tied to his late start, decision-making under pressure requires basketball IQ built from countless reps in varied scenarios. Without early immersion, Giannis defaults to his strengths—driving or pulling up—rather than orchestrating like a true point forward.

    Ball-Handling, Counter Moves, and Other Bad Habits

    Giannis’ handle lacks creativity, making him predictable when trapped. He

    doesn’t have a wide array of counter moves, often resorting to the same Euro-step or spin without variation. Bad habits compound this: fascination with inefficient isolation mid-rangers or dribble-up threes, poor off-ball movement, and inconsistent boxing out. These stem from relying on physical dominance rather than refined skills, a byproduct of skipping foundational years.

    The Cost of a Late Bloom and Paths Forward

    Giannis’ weaknesses aren’t from lack of effort—he’s worked tirelessly to improve. But starting at 13 meant building a skyscraper on a shallow foundation; the cracks show in technical areas requiring early muscle memory. For the Bucks to contend, Giannis must evolve beyond isolation heroics, embracing team play like better screens and quicker passes. At 30, there’s still time, but these lingering issues remind us: Even freaks of nature have human origins.

  • How many top100 nba players have done worse than giannis in the playoffs?

    How many top100 nba players have done worse than giannis in the playoffs?

    While Giannis Antetokounmpo has indeed struggled with consistent playoff success, with six first-round exits in his ten playoff appearances (60% first-round exit rate) , a few more top 100 NBA players of all time have actually had worse or comparable playoff failures relative to their talent and expectations.

    Karl Malone – Often ranked in the top 15-20 all-time

    Karl Malone holds the unfortunate record for most playoff games (193) without winning a championship. Despite being a two-time MVP and reaching two Finals, he suffered multiple devastating losses:

    • Lost both Finals appearances to Michael Jordan’s Bulls (1997, 1998)
    • Had significant playoff efficiency drops compared to regular season performance
    • His transition-heavy style was less effective against disciplined playoff defenses

    Charles Barkley – Universally considered top 20-25 all-time

    Barkley had a worse playoff series record than Giannis, going 12-13 in playoff series throughout his career :

    • Only one Finals appearance (1993 loss to Bulls)
    • Eight first-round exits, compared to Giannis’s six
    • Career playoff record of 62-61, barely above .500

    Steve Nash – Two-time MVP, often ranked 30-40 all-time

    Nash never reached an NBA Finals despite his elite regular season success :cbc+1

    • Played 120 career playoff games without a championship
    • Series record of 11-12 in the playoffs
    • Multiple devastating playoff exits with Phoenix despite having superior teamsyoutubecbc

    Reggie Miller – Hall of Famer, top 50-75 all-time

    Miller’s playoff record was remarkably similar to current Giannis :

    • Series record of 14-15 in 29 playoff series
    • Eight first-round exits throughout career
    • Only one Finals appearance (2000 loss to Lakers)
    • Played 144 playoff games without winning a championship

    Patrick Ewing – Top 50 player, #1 draft pick with championship expectations

    Despite being the centerpiece of multiple strong Knicks teams, Ewing never won a championship :

    • Went 0-5 against Michael Jordan’s Bulls in playoff matchups
    • 139 career playoff games without a title
    • Known for several crucial playoff failures, including the infamous missed finger-roll

    Players with Similar or Slightly Better Records

    Chris Paul – Top 75 player, “Point God”

    Paul has had numerous devastating playoff collapses :

    • Record holder for most blown 2-0 playoff leads (4)
    • Series record barely above .500 at 72-68 overall
    • Only advanced past the second round twice in 13 playoff appearances
    • Eight first-round exits in his career

    James Harden – Former MVP, top 75 player

    Despite regular season excellence, Harden has underperformed in crucial playoff moments :

    • Multiple playoff collapses, including the infamous 2018 Western Conference Finals
    • Known for poor elimination game performances
    • Only one Finals appearance (2012 with OKC as sixth man)

    Recent Struggles in Context

    Giannis’s recent struggles three consecutive first-round exits from 2023-2025 are concerning. But while Giannis’s six first-round exits in ten appearances represent genuine playoff struggles, at least 5-7 other top 100 players had worse or comparable playoff failures relative to their talent and expectations. Players like Karl Malone, Charles Barkley, Steve Nash, Reggie Miller, and Patrick Ewing all had more devastating playoff careers when accounting for their lack of championships and multiple crushing defeats.

    Why Giannis Struggles in the Playoffs: A Comprehensive Analysis

    Giannis Antetokounmpo isn’t inherently “bad” in the playoffs—he still puts up impressive individual numbers—but he faces specific, exploitable weaknesses that championship-level teams have learned to target systematically. His playoff struggles stem from a combination of technical limitations, strategic vulnerabilities, and psychological factors that become magnified under postseason pressure.

    The Primary Weaknesses

    Free Throw Shooting: The Fatal Flaw

    Giannis’s most glaring weakness is his free throw shooting, which deteriorates significantly in the playoffs :

    • Career playoff free throw percentage: 62% compared to 69.3% in regular season
    • Recent playoff performance: As low as 57% in some series
    • Strategic impact: Teams deliberately foul him late in games, knowing he’s likely to miss

    His excessively long free throw routine (15-20 seconds per shot) creates mental pressure and allows fans to affect his concentration. The routine lacks fluidity and doesn’t mirror his actual shooting motion, making it essentially “not a basketball act”.

    The “Giannis Wall” Strategy

    Since 2019, teams have deployed a devastating defensive scheme called “The Wall” that has consistently neutralized his dominance :

    How it works:

    • Three defenders collapse on Giannis when he drives, forming a “wall”
    • Two additional defenders stay back to contest his kick-out passes
    • Forces him into difficult shots or turnovers

    Historical success against Giannis:

    • 2019 Raptors: Pioneered the strategy, won series 4-2
    • 2020 Heat: Perfected it, dominated series 4-1
    • 2022 Celtics: Used effectively despite losing 4-3
    • 2023-2025: Multiple teams continue using variations successfully

    Three-Point Shooting Vulnerability

    Teams actively encourage Giannis to shoot three-pointers, knowing it plays away from his strengths :

    • Recent playoff 3PT%: 25-27%, well below league average
    • Strategic exploitation: Defenses sag off him, daring him to shoot
    • Shot selection issues: Takes contested threes instead of driving when teams expect it

    Psychological and Tactical Factors

    Pressure and Decision-Making

    Giannis struggles with decision-making when facing intense playoff pressure :

    • Turnover increase: Higher turnover rate in playoffs, especially against walls
    • Forcing shots: Tends to force drives into set defenses rather than making correct passes
    • Takes it personally: Admits he gets emotional when facing “The Wall” strategy

    Supporting Cast Dependency

    Unlike other superstars, Giannis requires exceptional supporting cast performance to succeed :

    • 2021 championship context: Won with injured opponents (Nets’ Big 3, Lakers’ stars)
    • Recent struggles: When Middleton, Holiday, or Lillard struggle, Bucks lose
    • Role player reliance: Needs shooters to make open shots when he passes out of walls

    Screen Setting Deficiency

    An underrated weakness that affects team offense :

    • Poor technique: Sets “ghost screens” that don’t create real advantages
    • Low efficiency: Only 30th percentile as pick-and-roll roll man
    • Impact on teammates: Limits Damian Lillard’s effectiveness in pick-and-roll

    Why These Weaknesses Are Magnified in Playoffs

    Preparation Time

    Playoff teams have extensive time to study and prepare specific schemes :

    • Regular season success doesn’t translate when teams gameplan specifically for him
    • Coaches like Nick Nurse, Erik Spoelstra excel at exploiting these weaknesses systematically

    Defensive Intensity and Focus

    Playoff defenses are more disciplined and committed to executing complex schemes :

    • Teams willing to sacrifice individual defense to build effective walls
    • Better communication and rotation on defensive schemes
    • More physical play that disrupts his rhythm

    Clutch Moments and Mental Pressure

    High-stakes situations expose his technical limitations :

    • Free throw struggles become magnified in close games
    • Three-point shooting weakness limits late-game options
    • Increased pressure affects decision-making under duress

    The Championship Exception: 2021

    Giannis’s 2021 championship run succeeded because of unique circumstances :

    • Opponent injuries: Brooklyn’s Big 3 were injured, Lakers eliminated early
    • Supporting cast peak: Middleton and Holiday played at their highest level
    • Health: Giannis overcame his own knee injury to deliver historic Finals performance

    Giannis isn’t “bad” in the playoffs—he’s a victim of solvable basketball problems that he hasn’t adequately addressed. His combination of free throw struggles, three-point shooting deficiencies, and vulnerability to sophisticated defensive schemes creates a blueprint that disciplined playoff teams can exploit. Unlike transcendent playoff performers who elevate their games under pressure, Giannis’s technical limitations become more pronounced when facing elite, prepared defenses with months to gameplan specifically for his weaknesses.

  • The Rebounding Illusion: Giannis Antetokounmpo the Bucks Worse on the Boards

    The Rebounding Illusion: Giannis Antetokounmpo the Bucks Worse on the Boards

    In NBA analytics, some stats cut through the hype and reveal uncomfortable truths. The “BEAST ON THE BOARDS” chart illustrates how star big men’s presence impacts their team’s rebound percentages. Players like Steven Adams (+19.1 OREB%, +18.5 TREB%) and Nikola Jokic (+3.1, +6.2) boost their squads, living up to their reputations as rebounding forces. But then there’s Giannis Antetokounmpo, with negative differentials: -3.1 OREB% and -0.2 TREB%. This isn’t a glitch—it’s a pattern that questions the “Greek Freak’s” true impact.

    Giannis posts gaudy individual numbers, averaging double-digit rebounds most seasons, but the team’s rebounding suffers when he’s on the floor. Why? It’s not just about team dynamics; it’s tied to Giannis’ evolving priorities, defensive shortcomings, and a focus on personal stats over team success. Since his 2019-20 Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) award, his defence has declined, he’s emphasised offence, chased highlights, and padded rebounds—often at the expense of cohesive play. Let’s break it down with data and context.

    Understanding On-Off Rebound Percentages

    Before we dissect Giannis’ case, let’s clarify the stat. Rebound percentage measures the share of available rebounds a team (or player) secures while on the court. It’s more insightful than raw rebounds because it accounts for pace and opportunities—after all, a fast-paced game might have more misses, but the percentage normalizes that.

    • OREB%: The percentage of a team’s own missed shots that they rebound (offensive rebounds / (offensive rebounds + opponent’s defensive rebounds)).
    • TREB%: The overall rebound percentage, combining offensive and defensive boards.

    The “on-off differential” compares the team’s performance in these metrics when a player is on the court versus off. A positive number means the team rebounds better with the player playing; a negative means they rebound better without them.

    Data from sites like Cleaning the Glass shows this isn’t a one-off fluke for Giannis. In the 2021-22 season (which aligns closely with the chart’s numbers, showing -2.8 OREB% on-off), and other years like 2018-19 (-1.2%) and 2020-21 (-1.9%), Giannis posted negative differentials. Yet, in more recent seasons like 2023-24 (+2.6 OREB%) and 2024-25 (+1.8%), it’s flipped positive. So, what’s going on?

    Giannis’ Individual Stats: Impressive, But Inflated?

    Giannis ranks among the league’s top rebounders, but scrutiny reveals issues:

    SeasonRebounds Per Game (RPG)Total Rebound % (TRB%)Defensive Rating (DRtg)Defensive BPM (DBPM)
    2019-2013.621.4%974.1
    2020-2111.018.5%1072.8
    2021-2211.619.2%1063.5
    2022-2311.819.8%1082.7
    2023-2411.518.8%1122.4
    2024-2511.919.5%1092.5

    (Source: Basketball-Reference)

    His RPG and TRB% are solid, but notice the defensive metrics. Post-DPOY (where he posted a league-best 97 DRtg), his DRtg has worsened to 107-112, indicating more points allowed per 100 possessions. DBPM, measuring defensive impact, dropped from 4.1 to as low as 2.4. This decline correlates with negative rebound diffs, as poor defence leads to more opponent makes—and fewer rebound chances.

    The Shift: From Defensive Anchor to Offensive Focus

    Giannis won DPOY in 2019-20 as a versatile defender, using his 7-foot wingspan for help defence and rim protection. But since then, his effort has waned. Analysts note he’s prioritised offence over grinding on D. Bucks’ schemes rely on him as a free safety, but he often chases “highlight reel” plays—spectacular blocks or steals—instead of sticking to plans.

    This individualism disrupts team rebounding. Teammates “clear out” on misses, letting Giannis grab easy defensive boards to pad stats, rather than contesting collectively. A notorious 2023 incident saw him intentionally miss a shot for his own rebound to secure a triple-double, later rescinded by the NBA amid “stat-padding” backlash. Fans and media called it “shameless,” highlighting a pattern where personal milestones trump team efficiency.

    Defensive Shortcomings: Speed, Switching, and Fundamentals

    Giannis’ late start in basketball—he didn’t play organised ball until age 13 in Greece—shows in his reflexes and scheme comprehension. Unlike peers who honed instincts young, he struggles with complex switches in modern pick-and-roll defences. He’s not fast enough laterally to guard perimeter threats, often getting blown by or mispositioned. This leads to breakdowns: Opponents exploit gaps, leading to more makes and fewer Bucks rebounds.

    In high-pace lineups with Giannis, the team leaks out for transitions, but his defensive lapses mean more opponent scores—reducing OREB% opportunities. Bench units, without him, play more structured, grabbing boards at higher rates. Social media discussions echo this: “Giannis was only ever a helpside defender… not much of a rim protector.” His blocks (around 1-1.5/game post-DPOY) are flashy but don’t anchor like Gobert’s.

    Lineup and Opponent Factors: Excuses or Reality?

    Sure, roster changes matter—Brook Lopez’s injuries forced adjustments, and backups like Bobby Portis (16.5% TRB% in 2021-22) feast in non-Giannis minutes. But this masks Giannis’ issues. He faces starters, but his declining DBPM suggests he’s not elevating the unit. Bucks’ overall TREB% (50-52%) is average, but negatives persist because Giannis’ style—offence-first, stat-chasing—trades team rebounding for personal glory.

    He’s in his prime physically but coasting defensively.

    Time for Accountability

    Giannis’ negative on-off rebound diffs aren’t a paradox—they’re a symptom of prioritising offence, highlights, and stats over defence and team play. His late basketball start hampers reflexes in schemes, and rebound “padding” inflates numbers while hurting the Bucks. Milwaukee won in 2021 despite this, but as defences evolve, Giannis must recommit defensively. In 2025-26, under Doc Rivers, watch if he adapts—or if the illusion crumbles further.