Here is a summary of the discussion:
Bucks’ Outlook and Win Prediction
- Vegas Odds and Win Total: The hosts found the Milwaukee Bucks’ over/under win total of 42.5 surprising, especially considering Giannis Antetokounmpo is still the best player in the conference [00:00]. The Bucks’ odds to win the conference were set at 20-to-1, the eighth-best in the East [00:07].
- Confidence in the Over: The hosts were in strong agreement that the 42.5 win line is too low, projecting the Bucks to be at least a 46-win team [00:55]. They ultimately settled on a “triple lock” for the over [03:11].
Team Changes and Strengths
- Key Personnel Shifts: The team, which won 48 games last year, made several moves, which the hosts summarize as essentially trading Brook Lopez for Miles Turner and Damian Lillard for Cole Anthony [00:13]. They also note the addition of Thanasses and Alex A. [01:06].
- Shooting Prowess: Despite the roster changes, the Bucks were highlighted as a “sneaky great shooting team,” having the number one three-point shooting percentage (38.5%) in the league last year. Several role players were shooting over 40% from deep [00:21].
- Miles Turner Upgrade: Turner is viewed as a significant improvement over Brook Lopez, making the team’s core identity “absolutely seamless” [01:54].
- Motivation and Edge: The team is seen as highly motivated, with coach Doc Rivers not wanting to rebuild, Giannis trying to win, and several rotation players like Turner, Kevin Porter Jr., and Cole Anthony playing with a “chip on their shoulder” [04:17].
Areas of Concern and Trade Speculation
- Playmaking Concern: A point of disagreement was the absence of another dedicated ball-handler besides Giannis, a role Damian Lillard provided [02:06].
- Giannis’s Future: The possibility of a trade was acknowledged, though the hosts agreed that it would be “much more likely to be an offseason thing than an inseason thing” [03:01].
- Hypothetical In-Season Trade: In a purely speculative exercise, if Giannis were to be traded mid-season, the most likely destination suggested was the San Antonio Spurs to pair him with Victor Wembanyama [07:28]. Other teams mentioned were Houston and Oklahoma City [07:45].
Video Details:
- Channel: Bill Simmons
- Title: How Good Will the Bucks Be? | The Bill Simmons Podcast
- URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhYqNTLoeMI
Transcription (automatic)
The Milwaukee Bucks over under 42 and a half they are 20 to1 to win the conference which is the eighth best odds in the East even though they have the best player in the conference in Giannis minus 215 for the playoffs they were 48 and 34 last year they turned Lopez into Miles Turner they turned Dame Lillard into Cole Anthony and they turned Conaughtan into Coffee and Harris and they’re deep and they’re a sneaky great shooting team
zack great didn’t take a lot but they were the number one three-point shooting team by percentage 38.5 last year they had Prince Green Porter Trenton Rollins all over 40% turner was at 39.6 porter’s 37 dame was actually lower than all those numbers and uh and they have shooting and they have Giannis and this number is dumbfounding to me because I don’t think they’re trading Giannis this season and I just don’t see a world where this isn’t like a 46- win team well look I mean what did they win last year 48 yeah yeah and they added Thanasses and Alex antento brainer and Russell Westbrook talk about a freakoff we This is We got the All the freaks are in Milwaukee it’s a G-rated freakoff it’s the real freakoff right here in Milwaukee Town now uh I think this team actually makes more sense than last year’s team i think that like the version of this team now I got hammered i want to like right hand up i got smashed at the outset of the playoffs because this version of Milwaukee with all those shooters going up against Indiana i thought that that Freak was going to be able to assert his will and this and the shooters on Milwaukee would keep them in and the Pacers ran them the fuck off the floor and I lost a bunch of money but I still think that the core identity of this Milwaukee team like Turner coming in makes it makes it absolutely seamless he’s an improvement over Brook Lopez i mean a huge improvement i didn’t think Brooke was good last year he was fine i I think where I would disagree with you is that like who do who do I want dribbling the basketball other than Giannis and at least I had like another guy to do that with Dame last year in a pick and roll combination that made sense kevin Porter Jr is probably a little overt taxed in the role he’s going to get same same with Ryan Rollins but as long as you I mean like and Giannis typically plays about 65ish games so like the remaining 15 to 20 are going to be big for how much if if for how much they go over this number i am also an over giannis plus shooting just makes a lot of sense to me if he gets to 657 desperate Giannis well this is my back is to the wall career-wise and I’ve thought about this all summer and I’m tired of losing Yiannis kuzma can’t be worse um I think I think Jericho Sims is like a decent backup center i agree with and again but the wild card is like is there a world where this goes really south and Giannis is not on the team after the tread deadline i agree with you i think that’s much more likely to be an offseason thing than an inseason thing so I am taking without much thought actually this is an aggressive over for me yeah I have it as I’m locking it down so am I triple lock triple lock triple lock it’s on my locks it’s Tuesday October the 14th we’re taping this podcast doc River’s birthday triple lock on how about that triple on Doc Rivers’s birthday
Doc Rivers doesn’t I mean he left Boston the moment they were even hinting on rebuilding like he doesn’t want to rebuild with anybody giannis if he’s going to be there is going to try to win every game possible miles Turner just signed this deal and is pissed at Indiana and he’s going to want to beat everybody too they also a lot of the guys in this rotation are still like chip on their shoulder nobody believes in me why don’t people think I’m good guys like Kevin Porter what the fuck has he ever done like he’s still playing like he’s proven himself trent over and over again gets discounted in free agency portoris like he’s born with that chip cole Anthony about like I was six man of the year candidate like hot minute given away i’m f I think Cole Anthony could play crunch time for them uh I like I like that Rollins i thought he was pretty good for them last year and Green is just like the one thing we’ve seen with shooters like that they get better every year that they’re in the league right they always go up and I thought he was good last year i think this team’s going to be good he’s a AJ Green’s a good player great chemistry with Giannis portoris is just rock steady offense off the bench we barely even mention him we take him for granted because he just does what he does i think that I’m stunned that this line is so low like I I I don’t think the trade is priced is that what’s happening that’s it i think people think he’s just going to ask for a deal i have them I think they’re either fourth or fifth in the East i I have them or Atlanta sure four or five i think they’re not a playing team i think they’re four that makes tons of sense i six for me for sure we’re all in agreement so I did write down if we did get to vote for I assume you’re going to get your vote back would be my guess i haven’t asked for it but if uh Oh you don’t you don’t want the vote anymore do you i mean there’s I’m torn but we’ll see how it You know if you don’t have the vote you can gamble that’s why nobody offered it to me but I’m uh if they added an LVP award for most damaging player who played at least 25 minutes on a playoff team don’t do this to Kyle kosma’s minus 250 i can’t even think who would be another like heavy prohibitive favorite he’s not that’s not him he’s not I know he became a punchline last year like he’s not a bad NBA player he’s going to bounce back this year you predicting the Koosma bounceback koozma bounceback will I hit the legacy button or not most 2020 champion Kzma legacy button the Koosma legacy well they need him because if he actually can be somewhat what he looked like three years ago before House’s Wizards contaminated him well he not contaminated he got bit by a spider he was his own you know it was a self-sabotage alongside what was happening with the team the problem with him what happened is that he checked the fuck out two years ago and you can’t flip a switch in in in this league and show up with a team that’s contending and get your head right for for contending so we’re going to see this off season with this group is his head in the right place i’m proud that we got through this whole segment without talking about Giannis’s future and where he’s going to go well we kind of did we talked around it you have a whole season to do that yeah if there was one team if we’re wrong and he gets traded during the season oh boy you could only pick one team that that trade would happen to what is the team do I have to go first i’ll go first go ahead san Antonio okay because I don’t think the Knicks I just don’t think it’s an appetizing trade for the Bucks i’m not trading Giannis for what the Knicks are offering houston good so you guys took one and two so what’s that trade shenon i don’t know it you just asked me to name a team stop there i’m not going any further shenon mine is Reed Shepard oklahoma City that’s insane okay just saying they have the picks and the players prey’s even more risk averse than Zack they have What’s What’s the risk of taking on Giannis they just won the championship we just We all pick We all picked them to lock in over 62 and a half wins what are they trading for Giannis for does Giannis hurt that Giannis diminishes their win potential if I feel comfortable predicting that he will not get traded it’s okay see that’s fine i’m reporting that right now this is a purely it’s a ridiculous exercise so I gave an answer i don’t think San Antonio is ridiculous it’s not it’s not i think that’s the team that makes a ton of sense and by the way Giannis and Wemb is it absolute like Zack putting the microphone down walking away doing like a couple laps and doing this a few times yeah you you that’s all fine but just acknowledge that that is an enormous fuck you to Milwaukee there’s nothing they’re getting back from San Antonio other than we’ll be good in 5 years guys we’ll be good again in five years fox can be in that trade i was going to say and we’ll be good again in five years castle could be in that trade we’ll be good again in the East in three years there’s a bunch of picks that could go in that trade that’s what I mean that’s what I’m saying kelly Ool could be in that trade i love Kelly Ool l Cornet on top l Cornet hanging up don’t mention L Cornette