Greek Freak Analyzed

Tag: summary

  • Giannis 2024-25 Season: review and statistics

    Giannis 2024-25 Season: review and statistics

    Before I even get into the overall picture regarding Giannis look at this:

    The man has played for more than a decade in the NBA and he gets the whistle for travelling violations 26 times in a season! (And another 26 they didn’t bother to blow the whistle on him at least.) 3 back court violations? Really Giannis? Palming? 32 offensive fouls? 13 charges? We all know he can’t dribble but maybe he needs to get the memo.

    1. Defensive Impact Took a Step Back

    Giannis has long been heralded as one of the NBA’s premier defenders, earning the 2020 Defensive Player of the Year award. However, in the 2024-25 season, his defensive impact waned compared to his peak years. While he averaged 1.2 blocks and 0.9 steals per game, these numbers are closer to his career lows than his elite defensive seasons (e.g., 1.5 blocks and 1.2 steals in 2019-20). His Defensive Box Plus-Minus (DBPM), a metric that estimates defensive contribution, dropped to 0.8, down from 1.4 in the previous season and significantly lower than his 2.1 in his DPOY year. This regression is particularly concerning as Giannis enters his age-30 season, where maintaining elite defensive production becomes more challenging.

    2. Free-Throw Shooting Remains a Liability

    Giannis’ free-throw shooting has been a career-long Achilles’ heel, and the 2024-25 season saw no meaningful improvement. He shot 64.5% from the line on a career-high 10.9 attempts per game, a slight dip from his 65.7% in 2023-24. This poor performance at the stripe continues to hurt the Bucks in close games, especially in the playoffs, where opponents often employ “Hack-a-Giannis” strategies.

    Impact of the Decline:

    • In clutch situations (final five minutes of games within five points), Giannis’ free-throw struggles were glaring. He converted only 60.2% of his clutch free throws, costing the Bucks valuable points in tight contests.
    • His high volume of attempts amplifies the issue. With 10.9 attempts per game, missing roughly 3.9 shots per game translates to nearly 320 missed free throws over an 82-game season—a significant point differential.

    3. Playmaking Inconsistency

    While Giannis tied his career-high with 6.5 assists per game, his play making became less consistent compared to prior seasons. Posts on X highlighted that his increased reliance on mid-range jumpers and low-post isolations led to more stagnant possessions, reducing his ability to create for teammates. His assist-to-turnover ratio (6.5 assists to 3.4 turnovers) was respectable but unchanged from recent years, indicating no growth in decision-making efficiency.

    Key Observations:

    • Giannis’ assists often came from straightforward kick-outs or dump-offs rather than complex reads. Advanced metrics like Assist Points Created (APC) show he generated 15.2 points per game via assists, but this figure is lower than playmaking savants like Nikola Jokić (22.7 APC) or Luka Dončić (19.8 APC).
    • His tendency to dominate the ball in isolation-heavy sets disrupted the Bucks’ offensive flow, especially when paired with Damian Lillard, whose off-ball movement was underutilized.

    4. Three-Point Shooting Regressed

    Giannis has never been a prolific three-point shooter, but his 2024-25 season saw a noticeable dip in both volume and efficiency. He attempted only 1.2 threes per game (down from 1.7 in 2023-24) and made them at a career-low 20.7%. This regression limits his ability to stretch defences, allowing opponents to clog the paint and dare clearer shots.

    Why It Matters:

    • Modern NBA offences rely on spacing, and Giannis’ reluctance to shoot from deep makes it easier for defenders to sag off him. This was evident in games against teams like the Boston Celtics, who packed the paint and forced Giannis into inefficient mid-range attempts.
    • His low three-point volume reduces his offensive versatility, as he rarely threatens defences from beyond the arc, unlike other bigs like Karl-Anthony Towns or even Joel Embiid.

    Areas Where Giannis Hasn’t Improved

    1. Post-Up Scoring Efficiency

    Giannis’ post-up game remains a work in progress. Despite his physical dominance, he struggles to convert consistently in the post, especially against savvy defenders who force him into tough fade aways or contested hooks. His post-up efficiency (points per possession) was 0.92, below the league average for big men (0.95). Critics on X noted that his post-up possessions often result in low-percentage shots or turnovers rather than drawing doubles and creating open looks for teammates.

    What’s Holding Him Back?:

    • Limited Footwork: Giannis relies heavily on power and athleticism rather than refined footwork or countermoves. Defenders who can match his physicality, like Draymond Green or Anthony Davis, often neutralize him in the post.
    • Predictability: His go-to moves (spin move or drop-step) are well-scouted, and he hasn’t developed a consistent counter to keep defenders guessing.

    2. Off-Ball Movement and Screening

    Giannis is not a natural off-ball player, a weakness that persisted in 2024-25. He rarely cuts, sets screens, or relocates to exploit defensive attention, which limits his fit in motion-based offences. Social media posts emphasise his lack of chemistry in pick-and-roll sets with guards like Lillard, as he doesn’t roll hard or set effective screens.

    Impact:

    • The Bucks’ offence often stagnates when Giannis isn’t the primary ball-handler, as he struggles to create value without the ball. This was evident in games where Lillard or Khris Middleton ran the offence, and Giannis was reduced to standing in the dunker’s spot.
    • His screening deficiencies reduce the effectiveness of Milwaukee’s pick-and-roll game, forcing Lillard to create in isolation or rely on other screeners like Brook Lopez.

    3. Mid-Range Shooting Stagnation

    While Giannis has worked to develop a mid-range jumper, his efficiency in this area hasn’t progressed significantly. He shot 39.4% on mid-range attempts (10-16 feet), roughly in line with his 40.1% in 2023-24. This lack of improvement limits his ability to punish defences that give him space in the mid-post or at the elbow.

    Why It’s a Problem:

    • Elite bigs like Kevin Durant or Nikola Jokić use mid-range shooting to keep defences honest, but Giannis’ inconsistency allows opponents to focus on rim protection without worrying about pull-up jumpers.
    • His increased reliance on mid-range shots (up to 3.1 attempts per game) without improved accuracy led to inefficient possessions, especially in crunch time.

    4. Clutch Performance Under Pressure

    Giannis’ clutch performance remains a mixed bag. While he delivered standout moments, such as his 59-point, 14-rebound game against the Pistons, his overall clutch stats (last five minutes, game within five points) were underwhelming. He shot 54.2% from the field in clutch situations (down from 58.7% in 2023-24) and, as mentioned, struggled at the free-throw line. His turnover rate in clutch scenarios also rose to 4.1 per 36 minutes, indicating issues with decision-making under pressure.

    Key Issues:

    • Over-Reliance on Hero Ball: Giannis often resorts to forcing drives or isolations in clutch moments, leading to contested shots or turnovers.
    • Lack of Go-To Move: Giannis lacks a reliable crunch-time move to generate clean looks consistently.

    As a player entering his prime, Giannis was expected to refine his weaknesses, particularly in shooting and off-ball play, to elevate the Bucks’ championship ceiling.

    Looking Ahead: Can Giannis Address These Shortcomings?

    Giannis Antetokounmpo’s 2024-25 season was marred by subtle regressions and persistent weaknesses. His defensive impact waned, his free-throw shooting remained a liability, and his play making lacked consistency. Meanwhile, his post-up scoring, off-ball movement, mid-range shooting, and clutch performance showed little to no improvement. While injuries and team context played a role, these shortcomings underscore the challenges Giannis faces as he navigates his prime. For the Bucks to contend in 2025-26, Giannis must address these areas. Otherwise he might as well already prepare some dumb “there is no failure in sports” speech…

    Sources Basketball-Reference.com for statistical data / ESPN.com for game logs and advanced stats / RotoWire.com for fantasy and performance analysis / Posts on social media for fan and analyst sentiment

  • Artificial Intelligence dissects Giannis

    Artificial Intelligence dissects Giannis

    Grok3 has an interesting and very valid summary of stuff I have been writing about elsewhere regarding Giannis in the playoffs:

    “Limited Outside Shooting: Giannis isn’t a consistent threat from beyond the arc. His three-point shooting has improved over the years, but it’s still not elite (career 28.6% as of the 2023-24 season). Defenses often sag off him, daring him to shoot from deep.

    Free-Throw Struggles: His free-throw percentage hovers around 70% (career 70.2% through 2023-24), which is decent but not great for a star player. In high-pressure situations, like the playoffs, this can be a liability—teams may exploit it with intentional fouls.

    Reliance on Physicality: Giannis thrives on his size, strength, and athleticism to dominate drives and finishes at the rim. If he faces physical defenses or loses a step as he ages, his effectiveness could dip unless he diversifies his game further.

    Playmaking Limitations: While he’s a solid passer for a big man (career 5.0 assists per game), he’s not a primary ball-handler or elite playmaker like LeBron James or Nikola Jokić. His assist numbers often come from straightforward reads rather than complex orchestration.

    Post Game Needs Refinement: Despite his size (6’11”), Giannis doesn’t have a polished low-post game with a variety of moves. He relies more on power and quickness than finesse or footwork in the paint.

    Defensive Versatility Has Limits: He’s an elite defender—capable of guarding 1 through 5 in spurts and a former Defensive Player of the Year (2019-20)—but he’s not always lockdown against smaller, quicker guards or sharpshooting wings due to his size.

    Predictable Drives: Giannis often attacks the basket with a head-down, euro-step-heavy style. Savvy defenses (e.g., the “Wall” strategy used by the Raptors in 2019) can clog the paint and force him to kick out or take tougher shots.

    Injury Concerns: His aggressive, physical style has led to occasional injuries, like knee and ankle issues. While he’s generally durable, his long-term health could be a question as he enters his 30s (he turned 30 in December 2024).”

    It is interesting how Grok also takes issue with a matter most choose to disregard when evaluating Giannis. And that is his massive performance drop off in high pressure situations. Here is what Grok says:

    “Giannis Antetokounmpo’s playoff performance has been a mixed bag, and it’s a hot topic among fans and analysts. While he’s undeniably a regular-season juggernaut—two MVPs and a Defensive Player of the Year award—his postseason play has drawn criticism for not always matching that dominance. Let’s break it down based on how he’s performed and the recurring knocks against him in the playoffs.

    One big critique is his efficiency—or lack thereof—when the stakes get higher. Take the 2022 Eastern Conference Semifinals against the Celtics: Giannis put up monster stats (33.9 points, 14.7 rebounds, 7.1 assists per game), but his shooting splits were rough—49.1% from the field and 67.9% from the free-throw line. He became the first player to notch 200 points, 100 rebounds, and 50 assists in a single series, yet the Bucks lost in seven games. Critics point to his 45.7% field goal percentage in that series (down from his regular-season norm) and argue he was more of a volume scorer than an efficient one, especially with Khris Middleton sidelined.

    Then there’s the free-throw issue. Giannis has never been a sharpshooter from the line, and it’s bitten him in the playoffs. In the 2023 first-round upset against the Heat, he shot 15-for-23 (65.2%) in the two games he played before a back injury knocked him out. Miami exploited this, and the Bucks crashed out as the No. 1 seed. His career playoff free-throw percentage sits at 66.2% (through 2023-24), compared to 70.2% in the regular season—small drop, big moments.

    His style of play also gets exposed when teams build a “wall” to stop his drives. The 2019 Raptors famously used this tactic in the Eastern Conference Finals, holding Giannis to 41.5% shooting and 12.3 points per game in the final four games (all losses after a 2-0 lead). Similarly, the Heat in 2020 limited his impact, and Miami took that series 4-1. Defenses collapse on him, and without a reliable jumper—he’s at 27.6% from three in the playoffs career-wise—he can struggle to create space or punish teams from outside.

    Injuries have also played a role, though not entirely his fault. He missed most of the 2023 Heat series with a bruised back and sat out the entire 2024 first-round loss to the Pacers with a calf strain. The Bucks went 0-5 in playoff games he’s played since May 11, 2022 (Game 5 vs. Boston), fueling the narrative that he’s faltering when it counts. Without him, Milwaukee actually won 3 of 8 in those stretches, which raises questions about team construction as much as his play.

    So, does he play “badly” in the playoffs? When he’s off, it’s magnified—shooting dips, turnovers spike (4.0 per game career playoff average), and teams dare him to beat them from deep or the line. “

    After more than a decade in the NBA, the AI makes valid points. Giannis once reached the ring and failed terribly every other year.