Greek Freak Analyzed

Tag: weakness

  • Giannis 2024-25 Season: review and statistics

    Giannis 2024-25 Season: review and statistics

    Before I even get into the overall picture regarding Giannis look at this:

    The man has played for more than a decade in the NBA and he gets the whistle for travelling violations 26 times in a season! (And another 26 they didn’t bother to blow the whistle on him at least.) 3 back court violations? Really Giannis? Palming? 32 offensive fouls? 13 charges? We all know he can’t dribble but maybe he needs to get the memo.

    1. Defensive Impact Took a Step Back

    Giannis has long been heralded as one of the NBA’s premier defenders, earning the 2020 Defensive Player of the Year award. However, in the 2024-25 season, his defensive impact waned compared to his peak years. While he averaged 1.2 blocks and 0.9 steals per game, these numbers are closer to his career lows than his elite defensive seasons (e.g., 1.5 blocks and 1.2 steals in 2019-20). His Defensive Box Plus-Minus (DBPM), a metric that estimates defensive contribution, dropped to 0.8, down from 1.4 in the previous season and significantly lower than his 2.1 in his DPOY year. This regression is particularly concerning as Giannis enters his age-30 season, where maintaining elite defensive production becomes more challenging.

    2. Free-Throw Shooting Remains a Liability

    Giannis’ free-throw shooting has been a career-long Achilles’ heel, and the 2024-25 season saw no meaningful improvement. He shot 64.5% from the line on a career-high 10.9 attempts per game, a slight dip from his 65.7% in 2023-24. This poor performance at the stripe continues to hurt the Bucks in close games, especially in the playoffs, where opponents often employ “Hack-a-Giannis” strategies.

    Impact of the Decline:

    • In clutch situations (final five minutes of games within five points), Giannis’ free-throw struggles were glaring. He converted only 60.2% of his clutch free throws, costing the Bucks valuable points in tight contests.
    • His high volume of attempts amplifies the issue. With 10.9 attempts per game, missing roughly 3.9 shots per game translates to nearly 320 missed free throws over an 82-game season—a significant point differential.

    3. Playmaking Inconsistency

    While Giannis tied his career-high with 6.5 assists per game, his play making became less consistent compared to prior seasons. Posts on X highlighted that his increased reliance on mid-range jumpers and low-post isolations led to more stagnant possessions, reducing his ability to create for teammates. His assist-to-turnover ratio (6.5 assists to 3.4 turnovers) was respectable but unchanged from recent years, indicating no growth in decision-making efficiency.

    Key Observations:

    • Giannis’ assists often came from straightforward kick-outs or dump-offs rather than complex reads. Advanced metrics like Assist Points Created (APC) show he generated 15.2 points per game via assists, but this figure is lower than playmaking savants like Nikola Jokić (22.7 APC) or Luka Dončić (19.8 APC).
    • His tendency to dominate the ball in isolation-heavy sets disrupted the Bucks’ offensive flow, especially when paired with Damian Lillard, whose off-ball movement was underutilized.

    4. Three-Point Shooting Regressed

    Giannis has never been a prolific three-point shooter, but his 2024-25 season saw a noticeable dip in both volume and efficiency. He attempted only 1.2 threes per game (down from 1.7 in 2023-24) and made them at a career-low 20.7%. This regression limits his ability to stretch defences, allowing opponents to clog the paint and dare clearer shots.

    Why It Matters:

    • Modern NBA offences rely on spacing, and Giannis’ reluctance to shoot from deep makes it easier for defenders to sag off him. This was evident in games against teams like the Boston Celtics, who packed the paint and forced Giannis into inefficient mid-range attempts.
    • His low three-point volume reduces his offensive versatility, as he rarely threatens defences from beyond the arc, unlike other bigs like Karl-Anthony Towns or even Joel Embiid.

    Areas Where Giannis Hasn’t Improved

    1. Post-Up Scoring Efficiency

    Giannis’ post-up game remains a work in progress. Despite his physical dominance, he struggles to convert consistently in the post, especially against savvy defenders who force him into tough fade aways or contested hooks. His post-up efficiency (points per possession) was 0.92, below the league average for big men (0.95). Critics on X noted that his post-up possessions often result in low-percentage shots or turnovers rather than drawing doubles and creating open looks for teammates.

    What’s Holding Him Back?:

    • Limited Footwork: Giannis relies heavily on power and athleticism rather than refined footwork or countermoves. Defenders who can match his physicality, like Draymond Green or Anthony Davis, often neutralize him in the post.
    • Predictability: His go-to moves (spin move or drop-step) are well-scouted, and he hasn’t developed a consistent counter to keep defenders guessing.

    2. Off-Ball Movement and Screening

    Giannis is not a natural off-ball player, a weakness that persisted in 2024-25. He rarely cuts, sets screens, or relocates to exploit defensive attention, which limits his fit in motion-based offences. Social media posts emphasise his lack of chemistry in pick-and-roll sets with guards like Lillard, as he doesn’t roll hard or set effective screens.

    Impact:

    • The Bucks’ offence often stagnates when Giannis isn’t the primary ball-handler, as he struggles to create value without the ball. This was evident in games where Lillard or Khris Middleton ran the offence, and Giannis was reduced to standing in the dunker’s spot.
    • His screening deficiencies reduce the effectiveness of Milwaukee’s pick-and-roll game, forcing Lillard to create in isolation or rely on other screeners like Brook Lopez.

    3. Mid-Range Shooting Stagnation

    While Giannis has worked to develop a mid-range jumper, his efficiency in this area hasn’t progressed significantly. He shot 39.4% on mid-range attempts (10-16 feet), roughly in line with his 40.1% in 2023-24. This lack of improvement limits his ability to punish defences that give him space in the mid-post or at the elbow.

    Why It’s a Problem:

    • Elite bigs like Kevin Durant or Nikola Jokić use mid-range shooting to keep defences honest, but Giannis’ inconsistency allows opponents to focus on rim protection without worrying about pull-up jumpers.
    • His increased reliance on mid-range shots (up to 3.1 attempts per game) without improved accuracy led to inefficient possessions, especially in crunch time.

    4. Clutch Performance Under Pressure

    Giannis’ clutch performance remains a mixed bag. While he delivered standout moments, such as his 59-point, 14-rebound game against the Pistons, his overall clutch stats (last five minutes, game within five points) were underwhelming. He shot 54.2% from the field in clutch situations (down from 58.7% in 2023-24) and, as mentioned, struggled at the free-throw line. His turnover rate in clutch scenarios also rose to 4.1 per 36 minutes, indicating issues with decision-making under pressure.

    Key Issues:

    • Over-Reliance on Hero Ball: Giannis often resorts to forcing drives or isolations in clutch moments, leading to contested shots or turnovers.
    • Lack of Go-To Move: Giannis lacks a reliable crunch-time move to generate clean looks consistently.

    As a player entering his prime, Giannis was expected to refine his weaknesses, particularly in shooting and off-ball play, to elevate the Bucks’ championship ceiling.

    Looking Ahead: Can Giannis Address These Shortcomings?

    Giannis Antetokounmpo’s 2024-25 season was marred by subtle regressions and persistent weaknesses. His defensive impact waned, his free-throw shooting remained a liability, and his play making lacked consistency. Meanwhile, his post-up scoring, off-ball movement, mid-range shooting, and clutch performance showed little to no improvement. While injuries and team context played a role, these shortcomings underscore the challenges Giannis faces as he navigates his prime. For the Bucks to contend in 2025-26, Giannis must address these areas. Otherwise he might as well already prepare some dumb “there is no failure in sports” speech…

    Sources Basketball-Reference.com for statistical data / ESPN.com for game logs and advanced stats / RotoWire.com for fantasy and performance analysis / Posts on social media for fan and analyst sentiment

  • The Myth of Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Mid-Range Shot part 4 : A Closer Look

    The Myth of Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Mid-Range Shot part 4 : A Closer Look

    Over the years, analysts and fans alike have speculated about the evolution of his game, with one narrative gaining traction: Giannis has developed a reliable mid-range shot. This claim, however, is more myth than reality. While Giannis has shown flashes of mid-range competence in certain situations, the idea that he has a consistent, game-changing mid-range jumper—especially in tougher matchups and high-stakes games—doesn’t hold up under scrutiny. 

    The Statistical Mirage, especially in games they lose

    To understand the myth, we first need to look at the numbers. Giannis has indeed increased his mid-range attempts over the years. According to NBA.com stats, in the 2020-21 season (his first MVP year with notable mid-range chatter), he took 2.1 mid-range shots per game, hitting them at a 41.8% clip. Fast forward to the 2023-24 season, and those numbers crept up slightly—2.5 attempts per game at a 43.1% success rate. On the surface, this looks like progress. For a player who once avoided the mid-range entirely, any improvement seems noteworthy.

    However, these stats are misleading without context. Giannis mid-range volume remains a tiny fraction of his overall shot diet. Compare that to true mid-range maestros like Kevin Durant (over 30% of his shots from mid-range in 2023-24) or Chris Paul (a career mid-range savant), and it’s clear Giannis isn’t relying on this shot as a weapon. It just doesn’t add up to points that matter. More importantly, his efficiency drops significantly when facing elite defenses. In the 2023 playoffs, for instance, his mid-range shooting

    plummeted to 36.4% against the Miami Heat, a team that clogged the paint and dared him to shoot. The numbers suggest competence in low-pressure scenarios—like regular-season games against weaker teams—but falter when the stakes rise. That pie chart on the right is his shots in losses. He turns to almost 80% dunking at the rim and forgets other distances.

    Using just official stats from NBA.com here is this season Giannis in the games the Bucks lost. 36.4% of his mid range shots go in.  Last season?  40.3% went in!  So he isn’t improving at all in fact!  If we filter for the harder matchups it gets even worse.  He is only slightly better at 10-14ft, all other distances in the mid range he is shooting worse than last season.   Alley oops, hook shots, finger rolls, layups, even dunk percentages are worse this season. 

    That is this season but look how much better he was last season!

     

    The Eye Test: Form and Function

    Beyond the stats, Giannis’ mid-range shot fails the eye test in tougher match ups. His jumper lacks the fluidity and consistency of players who thrive in that range. His shooting form—marked by a slow release, a slight hitch, and an awkward follow-through—telegraphs his intentions, giving defenders time to contest or recover. Against teams with length and discipline Giannis rarely pulls up confidently from 15 feet. Instead, he reverts to his bread and butter: bulldozing to the rim or kicking out to shooters.

    That table above shows clearly how much worse Giannis is this season in most types of shots. If you don’t believe me go to the source, the official stats and see for yourself. He even misses more dunks this year!

    Watch any high-stakes game, and the pattern emerges. In the 2021 Finals against the Phoenix Suns, Giannis attempted just 12 mid-range shots across six games, making five (41.7%). Most of his damage came at the rim (63.1% shooting on 84 attempts) or at the free-throw line (where he took a whopping 71 attempts). The mid-range was an afterthought, not a game-changer. Similarly, in the 2023 first-round loss to Miami, his mid-range attempts were sporadic and ineffective, often forced late in the shot clock rather than a deliberate part of Milwaukee’s strategy. Elite defenses know this and exploit it, sagging off him to protect the paint and living with the occasional jumper. Better still they keep him away from his favourite spots and he takes the bait, going to his bad side of the paint and missing.

    Why It Doesn’t Matter in Big Games

    The myth of Giannis’ mid-range development persists because it’s an appealing narrative. For a player with his physical gifts, adding a jumper would theoretically make him unstoppable. But in reality, it hasn’t—and doesn’t—materially affect games that matter. 

    1. Defensive Game Plans Don’t Change: Teams like Toronto (2019 ECF) and Miami (2020 and 2023 playoffs) built walls in the paint and begged Giannis to shoot from outside. His mid-range “improvement” hasn’t forced them to adjust. They still prioritize stopping his drives, and he hasn’t punished them enough to rethink that approach.

    2. Playoff Pressure Magnifies Weaknesses: In the regular season, Giannis can feast on weaker teams with poor rim protection, occasionally mixing in a mid-range jumper to keep them honest. But in the playoffs, against top-tier coaching and personnel, his lack of confidence and consistency from that range becomes glaring. He hesitates, overthinks, or abandons the shot entirely.

    3. Giannis is a liability in clutch. I outlined 5 very likely scenarios where Giannis should simply not be on the floor. He is shooting free throws worse than ever in his career. And 3points at a percentage that could be the worse for a season in NBA history. Yet he hasn’t got the basketball IQ to know to avoid them!

    The Narrative vs. Reality

    The idea that Giannis has “developed” a mid-range shot stems from a mix of selective highlights and wishful thinking. A pull-up jumper against the Charlotte Hornets in January gets replayed on SportsCenter, and suddenly he’s “expanding his game.” But those moments are outliers, not the norm. Analysts point to his work with shooting coaches or off season training clips, but the results don’t translate when it counts. The Bucks’ 2021 title run wasn’t fueled by mid-range mastery it was about Khris Middleton’s clutch shooting, Brook spreading the floor , a suffocating defence led by Jrue and a team that was one of the best from 3 that season.

    Contrast Giannis with players like Nikola Jokić or Jayson Tatum, who seamlessly weave mid-range shots into their playoff arsenals. Jokić’s floater and fadeaway are lethal against any defence; Tatum’s pull-up keeps opponents guessing. Giannis lacks that dimension. And in tougher match ups against teams that can match his physicality or scheme him out of the paint it shows.

    A Myth That Misses the Point

    Giannis Antetokounmpo doesn’t have a reliable mid-range shot, and the claim that he’s developed one is a myth propped up by small sample sizes and optimistic storytelling. In games that matter most—playoff battles against elite foes—his mid-range game is non-existent or inconsequential. Defenses don’t respect it, and he doesn’t lean on it.  If anything he is getting worse from mid range when it counts. So just stop regurgitating the myth, it isn’t helping Giannis at all.

  • Giannis is the Bucks’ greatest weakness in the 4th quarter

    Giannis is the Bucks’ greatest weakness in the 4th quarter

    Here is the game against the Pacers in the 4th quarter play by play. Bucks up 107-91 and then:

    8.12 SUB: Antetokounmpo FOR Kuzma

    7.35 MISS Antetokounmpo 9′ Step Back Bank Jump Shot

    6.41 MISS Antetokounmpo 4′ Driving Layup

    5.12 Antetokounmpo Offensive Charge Foul (P3) (J.Schroeder) Giannis turnover

    3.57 Antetokounmpo 5′ Driving Finger Roll Layup (34 PTS) (Lillard 7 AST)

    3.48 Antetokounmpo S.FOUL (P4.T2) (T.Ford)

    3.21 Antetokounmpo S.FOUL (P5.T3) (J.Goble)

    3.07 MISS Antetokounmpo 7′ Driving Layup

    2.46 Antetokounmpo P.FOUL (P6.T4) (T.Ford)

    2.46 SUB: Porter Jr. FOR Antetokounmpo

    Score is now 106-117

    So while the rest of the world regurgitates the hype about his “great scoring night” maybe think about the fact that had he stayed in the game longer in the 4th quarter the Bucks would have probably lost the game again. Because of his selfish stat padding mania.

  • The Bucks are at a dead end. And it’s on Giannis

    The Bucks are at a dead end. And it’s on Giannis

    A long time ago, as they often recount the tale, the Bucks brought a young athletic boy to their town. Sure he couldn’t dribble or shoot, but his body had amazing and unique characteristics. And he worked really hard. And the Bucks did everything they could to make him comfortable, brought his family over and much more.

    So as he started playing he won people over with his smile. It also became apparent he needed a mentor on the court, Khris was ideal and he has done it selflessly for all these years. Giannis had no clue about how the NBA game worked. Khris took the slack for him in any situation that Giannis couldn’t understand or simply lacked the skills.

    In defence that was Jrue’s job. Giannis can’t read opponents. He can’t operate fast enough. So Jrue plugged the holes. As the Bucks playing style evolved to suit Giannis they looked for young, cheap and no ego sharp shooters to spread around the floor. And when it came time for a center to help in the paint, they picked Brook precisely because of his lethal (and then quite unique for a big) 3 point ability.

    And it worked! With a lot of good luck in the playoffs and thanks to Khris, Jrue and Brook they got Giannis to the Finals. That series was the Bucks’ to lose as it turned out and they quite easily won it. Giannis even had an epic 50 point game for the books. Heck he even scored free throws! And what did he do?

    In the ultimate show of inexperience he said, implied and outright shouted two pretty lethal messages:

    1. I did this the right way, no help, no superteam
    2. We are going to run it back next year.

    1. About the “right way” he was soooo wrong. As I explain here that Bucks team was a superteam. But most importantly Giannis proclaimed to the whole world that he was the Bucks. On his own. Solo. No super team, just a bunch of losers and him.

    2. So they didn’t “run it back”. Αny player staying on after this had to further suck up any ego or leave. The narrative almost every game the Bucks lost from then on is “Giannis tried but was let down by the rest of the roster.” Every single time. He is busy stat padding, hogging the ball, everyone else looks terrible.

    What player in his right mind would even consider joining such a team? You would have to be pretty desperate, have no ego and no other offers. Enter poor Damien Lillard. A player who almost damaged the Blazers in a similar fashion except he is smarter and the Blazers realised it sooner and built a young core better. And of course Dame starts and gets the same abuse as everyone else. He has to work with Giannis’ inferior basketball IQ yet not make him look bad on court. This is a conundrum that Khris had figured out to a certain extent but is getting too old to carry for a whole game like he used to. Dame has to wait for Giannis to do his thing and if he gets stuck in traffic has to hope Giannis will see him so that he can get a – usually terrible – pass from him to try and score with little time and with the entire opponent’s roster knowing that he has few options.

    So Dame does the Khris thing. In crunch time Giannis just keeps giving him the ball as if saying “dude I have no idea what to do when up against teams that actually defend against me!” The problem is that Giannis has believed his own hype. He keeps training for strength, he keeps trying to play bully ball, he just looks at points/assists/rebounds at the end of the game as if that is all that matters. When they win in the regular season against lesser opponents the NBA media and the Bucks marketing team shout a lot about his personal stats looking for rare and weird ones like 30point games with more than 3.14 times rotation of the Earth around Jupiter while the game was being played. When they lose against better opponents or anyone that bothers to defend Giannis with a bit of effort it is “Giannis tried but XYZ.” The narrative is always “Giannis is top dog, must be the rest of them at fault“.

    And he is killing the Bucks in the meantime.

    (PS Tonight the Bucks lost to the Blazers. Giannis was “player of the game” according to Bucks marketing and many fans. How does that make sense? He controlled the game most of the time other than the first quarter when he let Dame bring the ball down for a while. He just kept running the same play and forcing the Bucks to play in the same way even though it was clearly not working. What would his idol Lebron James have done? Got more players involved. Changed it up. At worse Giannis should have left the younger players get more minutes. You are not the “best player” when you are effectively killing your team both short term and in the long term.)