When Giannis Antetokounmpo led the Milwaukee Bucks to their first NBA championship in 50 years in 2021, his stock as a superstar reached an all-time high. The “Greek Freak” was not only a two-time MVP but also a Finals MVP. At that moment, his trade value was virtually untouchable, a player no team could realistically pry away from Milwaukee without offering a king’s ransom. Fast forward to March 2025, and Giannis trade value has undeniably taken a hit.
The Championship Glow Has Faded
The 2020-21 title was a crowning achievement, but the Bucks have struggled to replicate that success. All Giannis talk of “running it back” has not dated well. Milwaukee has faced a string of postseason disappointments: a second-round exit in 2022, a shocking first-round upset by the Miami Heat in 2023, and another early exit in 2024 despite pairing Giannis with Damian Lillard. These failures have shifted the narrative. While Giannis continues to post monstrous stat lines—averaging around 30 points, 12 rebounds, and 6 assists on elite efficiency—the lack of deep playoff runs has raised questions about whether he can carry a team to another title as the unquestioned No. 1 option. It is becoming more and more apparent that the Bucks championship team was built to hide his many game weaknesses.
In the immediate aftermath of the championship, trading for Giannis would have required multiple All-Stars, a haul of first-round picks, and perhaps even a young cornerstone player. Today, teams might still offer a hefty package, but the sense of invincibility around him has waned. The Bucks’ inability to build a consistent contender around him has exposed vulnerabilities, and rival executives are less likely to view him as a guaranteed ticket to a championship. His value is maybe as a regular season try hard, someone you can throw in games to rest your real playoff pieces.
Age and Wear-and-Tear Concerns
Giannis turned 30 in December 2024, and while he’s still in his physical prime, his game relies heavily on athleticism and relentless drives to the basket. Over the years, the mileage has accumulated—nine straight All-Star appearances, deep playoff runs, and international play with Greece have taken a toll. Injuries, though not chronic, have crept into the conversation. He missed significant time in the 2023 playoffs with a back issue, and nagging knee concerns have surfaced in subsequent seasons. He seems to not have the intelligence in the way he trains too. Free throws worse than ever, 3pt percentage worse than ever for him and worse in NBA history for a season. Basketball is a game of finesse and Giannis’ run and dunk style seems to have reached its limits. Worse of all, the NBA seems to have figured out how to stop him, with most teams now having at least one player that can shut down Giannis even without a wall.
For teams considering a trade, longevity is a factor. At his peak trade value in 2021, Giannis was 26, offering a decade of elite production. Now, at 30, the window is narrower. Front offices must weigh whether his next five years will match the dominance of his last five, especially given his limited outside shooting. Knowing this, Giannis tried to make a fuss about his mid range this season but it’s simply not true. He is regressing to his usual numbers. More importantly he has no free throw in the harder games. It is one of many things he can only do against easier opponents. His free-throw struggles are getting to the level of being a serious vulnerability in clutch. His lack of a reliable jumper remains exploitable and one of many weaknesses that will be targeted in the playoffs, further tempering the perception of him as a perfect superstar. Pretending to be injured won’t work forever.
The Damian Lillard Experiment
The Bucks’ acquisition of Damian Lillard in 2023 was supposed to elevate Giannis’ supporting cast and solidify Milwaukee as a dynasty. Ironic after Giannis made such a fuss about not being on a “super team”. He signed off getting rid of Jrue which was a massive mistake. It’s been a mixed bag. Lillard, now in his mid-30s, has shown signs of decline, and the fit with Giannis hasn’t been seamless more due to Giannis’ inability to adapt or play any sort of complicated systems. The trade cost Milwaukee significant depth and draft capital, leaving the roster top-heavy and aging. This has indirectly hurt Giannis’ trade value—teams now see the Bucks’ predicament and might hesitate to offer a massive package, knowing Milwaukee’s leverage is weakened by their all-in gamble.
In 2021, Giannis’ value was buoyed by the idea that he could thrive with any co-star. The Lillard experiment has cast doubt on that, suggesting he may need a very specific supporting cast to maximize his talents—a constraint that lowers his appeal in trade talks. Khris was a very special player, both saving Giannis in clutch and also managing to put his ego aside.
Market Dynamics and Contract Considerations
Giannis signed a three-year, $186 million extension in October 2023, keeping him under contract through the 2027-28 season (with a player option for the final year). While this gives Milwaukee security, it also means any team trading for him would inherit a supermax deal that balloons to over $60 million annually by 2027. For contenders, that’s a massive cap hit, and for rebuilding teams, it’s a questionable investment for a player who might not stick around long-term if success doesn’t follow. And it is very very likely not to work. Giannis is looking more and more concerned with stat padding and less and less able to play defence.
In 2021, his contract was seen as a bargain relative to his production. Now, with salaries escalating league-wide and teams more cap-conscious, the sheer size of his deal could deter some suitors, further depressing his trade value.
The Perception Shift
Perhaps the most intangible factor is the shift in how Giannis is perceived. In 2021, he was the ascending king, a once-in-a-generation talent who had just conquered the league. Today the aura of inevitability has faded. Younger stars like Luka Dončić, Jayson Tatum, and Anthony Edwards have entered the spotlight, and Giannis’ playoff shortcomings have fuelled debates about his place in the pecking order.
What’s He Worth Now?
At his peak, a Giannis trade might have fetched something like three All-Star-level players, five first-round picks, and additional assets—a package akin to what the Nets got for Kevin Durant in 2023. Today, a realistic haul might be closer to two high-level starters, three first-rounders, and some role players—still substantial, but a clear step down. For example, a hypothetical deal with a team like the Miami Heat might involve Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, and picks, whereas in 2021, it might have taken Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, and more. But no, the Heat won’t make a trade like that. And more than likely no other team will either. Other superstars don’t want to play with him for all sorts of reasons. The list of teams and players that have serious beef with Giannis is growing all the time.
Giannis Antetokounmpo’s trade value, once stratospheric, has declined since the 2021 championship. A combination of postseason struggles, age concerns, roster mismanagement in Milwaukee, and a shifting NBA landscape has brought him back to earth—still a superstar, but no longer untouchable. For Bucks fans, the hope is that he never hits the trade market. Personally I also think he will never leave the Bucks. He likes pretending he is the only one on the team worth anything. In my opinion he is solely to blame for bringing the Bucks to this dead end they are in. For the rest of the league, the Greek Freak’s slightly diminished value might just make the impossible dream a little more plausible. But finding a team that is willing to rearrange everything to fit him is looking less and less likely and with that his value falls every day.
